Jacob Christensen

“If this were repeated across the country, it would be very messy”. Somehow Monty Python got it right.

Patrick Dunleavy on a more serious note: “Nobody has won in terms of votes, but the last-minute momentum was to Labour”

Other LSE experts weigh in. I particularly like this one:

Charlie Beckett – POLIS Director

In media terms, what have we learnt?

1. That opinion polls during an election campaign are an expression of sentiment, not intention

2. That the TV debates shook up the campaign but they were platforms to perform, not parliaments to decide power

3. That the right-wing newspapers were unable to shift votes significantly, as the Tory share declined over the last month

4. That journalists were right to report the campaign process, but wrong to confuse polls, online memes and TV performance with real politics

Beckett’s comments should be the dashboard of every political journalist’s computer. And I mean every. (Right-wing newspapers play a lesser role in Danish politics but the other three points apply).

Let’s begin with the difficult question first: Do you know the name of the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia?

Oookay … what about his party affiliation then?

Right – I’ll put you out of your misery and reveal that his name is Jürgen Rüttgers, he’s from the CDU and the CDU/FDP win in the 2005 state elections triggered the early German federal elections in the autumn of 2005. The 2005 NRW election wasn’t the only reason that the Red-Green coalition broke up – it came as the last of a series of disastrous state elections for the SPD – but it tells us that this Sunday’s state election may have implications for the Federal level, and by implication European politics.

As it is, the NRW campaign has had some effects on the European level: Chancellor Angela Merkel sure as hell wouldn’t want any kind of settlement of the Greek crisis which could in any way affect CDU’s chances at the polls. On the other hand, the loss of the CDU-FDP majority in … do you know which city is the capital of NRW? No? Düsseldorf … could be a blessing in disguise for Merkel. If CDU puts in a respectable performance while the FDP gets whacked there is the possibility of a Black-Green coalition taking over. That would definitively liven up proceedings in the Bundesrat.

To Scandinavians, NRW is a curious, somewhat anonymous place. Like many German states it is an artefact created by the Allies after the Second World War combining parts of the Prussian Rhine Province, Westphalia and the state of Lippe. If you have a couple of days to spare, try visiting Bonn, Köln and Düsseldorf – three cities within commuting distance but completely and utterly different in character. Still, the Ruhr District continues to be the symbolic centre of the state which has almost 19 million inhabitants (that is more than all Nordic contries combined) but NRW has also been characterised by the fundamental changes in the German economy leading to the decline of mining and steel industry.

Which election is the most interesting: The NRW state election or the British general election? I will agree with Mattias Tesfaye that Germany is curiously underreported in Danish media (one reason is that most Danes don’t know German anymore, but then again: Why don’t Danes learn German anymore?) and that the UK has a position in international media which is not quite congruent with the country’s international importance. In some ways, the UK is to Europe what New York is to the US. On the other hand, he (and we) should not underestimate the problems a traditional industrial economy as that of the Ruhr has been – and still is – facing. The discussion about the relative merits of the Anglo-Saxon and the Rheinische models of capitalism is a major one in political economy and political science – even if academics tend to see the merits of the German/Continental model, especially when it comes to the creation of jobs, as somewhat more mixed. And we shouldn’t forget Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg which have been the powerhouses of German economy since the 1970s.

Even if we like to ignore Germany, the country is one of the largest markets for Danish services and goods, and therefore the NRW election is of more than peripheral interest. But which election is the most important? The NRW one or the GB one?

The headline almost wrote itself.

But I must admit that Nick Clegg is a very brave man here.

I have no answers to these, but they keep popping up when I follow UK election reports:

1. How much of the LD vote is a protest vote and how much can be said to be issue based (meaning: how stable is the surge in LD share of the vote in polls)?

2. How much is due to the Clegg-effect (Cleggfect?), and – to use the Danish phrase – how much could be picked up by a hobby-horse anyway?

3. Supposing there is no overall control in the 2010 parliament, how big are the chances of a coalition government (as compared with a tolerated minority government)? Risks and opportunities for the LD?

4. I have noted that no-one has yet called Clegg on which (formal or informal) coalition partner the party would prefer after the election. Strikes me as odd. (Or maybe this is because everybody knows that the LD draws its vote from L and assume that the only realistic option would be an L-LD pact?)

5. Main issues besides discontent? I’ve noted that the Guardian spent an hour discussing education in a podcast – but what else? Economy, employment?

6. I noted that L is using the “Brown is a safe pair of hands”-argument. Somewhere in the back of my head, I have Germany 1998 (“Weiter so” – not so, the voters said) and Denmark 2001 (“Nyrup the statesman”) as templates for disaster. Brown did better than I would have expected in last week’s debate, but patronising is very a difficult, if not outright dangerous, strategy for an unpopular leader.

7. Promising an Upper House of Parliament elected by PR seems like a dangerous strategy by Labour. Maybe I’m being Scandinavian here, but wouldn’t a more representative but less powerful chamber seriously expose the problems in FPTP – opening for a massive constitutional crisis?

Just in case anybody wondered, The Daily Mail reminds us about the mode of thought motivating today’s “Little Englanders”.

Case in point: The Mail’s character assassination of Nick Clegg – never mind his policies or political efficacy…

The multilingual Lib Dem leader was born to a Dutch mother and a half-Russian father, and employs a German spin doctor.

and it just gets worse:

Mrs Clegg, a Roman Catholic, admits that she refused her husband’s plea to give English names to their three sons, Antonio, Alberto and Miguel.

(My emphasis)

The word we’re looking for does indeed begin with an X. But in a way it is fascinating that something so noxious can be published in a mainstream newspaper.

I wonder how the Brits would react to a similar report in Bild-Zeitung. Or perhaps not.

HT: Next Left. (1), (2).

As we approach the US Independence Day, I thought it could be fun considering which country in Europe that would count as the most “American” – and by the way Denmark seems to be the only country which holds an official popular July 4th celebration (as in: a celebration where the local US Embassy is not the organiser).

US-European relations are notoriously tricky. On the one hand, Americans tend to see Europeans as more cultured and sophisticated while on the other hand deploring their (our) lack of initiative. Europeans see Americans as shallow and materialistic and consequently do everything that is in our power to emulate the US lifestyle with a couple of years’ delay.

OK: Our cars and houses are still smaller, but you get the picture.

But to round up some suspects and criteria: What does it take to be “an American country”?

First, we could be looking for a country which in some way or the other has influenced US culture and social and political institutions in a significant way. Britain (legal system) and France (rationalism, republicanism) would be obvious suspects, but perhaps the Netherlands also merit some attention.

Second, we could look for countries where American social, economic and political influence has been especially profound. The Federal Republic of Germany with its emphasis on federalism and the role played by the Bundesverfassungsgericht would be an obvious candidate here.

Third, we could look for countries which institutional similarities even if there is no evidence of direct US influence. Switzerland with its profoundly federal style of government and limited public sector would be a parallel on this side of the Atlantic. But then again, the Swiss are probably too organised and exclusive for the American taste.

But, just to tease you, I will promise two more posts on the subject with some surprising candidates. Stay tooned.

I’ll admit: Personally, I’m no supporter of the Danish People’s Party but the initial manoeuvring over the UK Conservative Party’s choice of partners in the European Parliament has something ridiculous over it. The Tories have stated that the Danish People’s Party were out of the question because it was too extreme politically.

So, which positions are not too extreme for the Tories?

We urgently need global chemotherapy against Islam to save civilisation. Fair and balanced. (Belgium)

Marching with local SS veterans? A-OK. (Latvia)

Women should not stand for parliament? Sure. The Tories are a modern party. (Netherlands)

Banning gay-rights demonstrations? No problem. (Poland)

I’m sorry, but the only thing to do about British politics is to shake one’s head in disbelief.

Original.

That leading politicians often leave office (more or less voluntarily) after an electoral disaster is nothing new, but pre-emptive resignations like those we see in the UK strikes me as being rather unusual.

The motives behind the resignations would be interesting to look into. Are ministers leaving now because they want to minimise the public humiliation of being hunted out of office (even if it is by proxy, if we assume that the EP election is used as a second-order election), or are they hoping that their resignations will make the electoral defeat smaller? I.e. are we dealing with purely egoistic motives or party loyalty?

Needless to say, the ministers may not have been jumping. It is perfectly possible that somebody pushed them, and this would be easier to explain: In the face of a historic defeat, the Labour leadership hauls everybody who are seen as liabilities overboard. The timing is an indication of the size of the disaster.

In the old days, they would withdraw the whip from you (okay, in the really old days they’d chop off your head), but these days they shut down your blog.