Jacob Christensen

1. Eurobarometer has a poll covering voting intentions, voters’ ranking of issues, etc. Looks like we’re in for a fall in turn-out. HT: Charlemagne, the Europhile .
2. There is a Danish poll out (but don’t tell anyone). Surprise result: The Eurosceptic movements look to lose heavily. Let’s see.

Bonus: The Prime Minister’s speech in the Folketing earlier today. Haven’t had the time to read it yet.

From the Department of Unnecessary Knowledge (or perhaps not), the obervation that the last time a Liberal Prime Minister took over after another Liberal Prime Minister was on August 16, 1909 when Ludvig Hostein-Ledreborg formed a government after Niels Th. Neergaard had been forced to resign due to conflicts over defence policy in the Liberal Party.

Niels Neergaard in his turn had taken over after J.C. Christensen in October 1908 after Christensen, the de facto leader of the Liberals, had been forced to resign after a scandal involving the former Justice Minister P.A. Alberti. Holstein-Ledreborg as voted out of office in October 1909 by a majority of Conservatives, Social Liberals and Social Democrats.

So what we are seeing today is the first peaceful transition from one Liberal to another.

So, at the moment of writing all signs point to Anders Fogh Rasmussen not becoming the next Secretary General of NATO today, tomorrow or at any later point in time.

Question #1: Why did the Turkish government block the nomination of Anders Fogh Rasmussen?

I’m not really competent to answer this one but let us note that two, partially competing explanations have been pit forward – first, the cartoon thing (“Turkey as the spokesman of the United Muslim World”), second the ROJ TV thing (Turkish nationalists vs. Kurdish political forces – Juan Cole notes that nationalist parties gained in the recent local elections in Turkey).

The Turks probably play a longer game here. A SG really isn’t that important and it is a case of manifesting the country’s importance internally and externally. Calls for a permament future exclusion of Turkey from the EU isn’t that much of a real-world threat.

Question #2: What will the ditching of Anders Fogh Rasmussen mean for Danish politics?

First, AFR and the Liberals are left with a nasty problem. For all effects, AFR has publicly stated that he wants to leave as Danish PM, and I cannot recall a situation where a PM has managed to return with his authority even remotely intact. From now on, AFR is damaged goods and he cannot lead the Liberals into the next elections. If I was AFR’s spin doctor, I would advise him to make a graceful exit as soon as possible and make way for Lars Løkke Rasmussen. The alternative will be a dirty struggle for the Liberal leadership. (I intend to get back on this one in a later post).

Second, I would imagine the Danish People’s Party to make the most of the situation. If the Turkish government plays the Muslim card internationally, DF will play the Muslim card nationally and they’ll do so big time. Heck, DF would even defend the Kurds if they had to.

Third, ever since the outbreak of the cold war, Liberals and Conservatives in Denmark have tended to have a very romantic view of the US in general and US-Danish relations in particular.

Now we’re in a situation where loyal Danish support for US foreign policies hasn’t paid off – okay, the SG thing is perhaps more symbolic than material, but still: If you were Barack Obama and had to choose between taking the side of Denmark (5,5 million and bordering on Sweden¹ ) and Turkey (76 million and bordering on Syria, Iraq and Iran), which country would be most important to accommodate? Denmark isn’t the most relevant of countries.

Participation in the Afghanistan and Iraq missions as well as a number of other out-of-area missions since the mid-1990s have stretched Danish military capacities and the question is if the ideological perspective (support the US at all costs) or a more realist small-state perspective (is there anything in this for us or should we rather go with France and Germany?) will prevail in Danish security policy for the coming years.

Update: You might not think so, but I am in fact ROFLMAO. Maybe it was my visit to the laundry room which sealed it. Anyway AFR for GS and a Turkish deputy – that is a classic and a Thing of Beauty. But ask Barack Obama, and he will say that this was the important part of the summit.

1. okay, okay – Greenland, but just to hammer home the point [↩]

Finance minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen to stay away from EU meeting in the week-end due to a family occasion.

Well, if it was that important, a possible hand-over would probably take place on Monday, so I can’t see any formal reasons why LLR shouldn’t be able to go.

Let us for the sake of argument assume that Anders Fogh leaves for NATO (or somewhere else) and Lars Løkke takes over as prime minister. In a Danish context, he will be unusual in two ways:

First, he has a background in local politics as deputy mayor of Græsted-Gilleleje¹ and later Frederiksborg County. The only previous Prime Minister to have been a mayor was C. Th. Zahle (Prime Minister 1909-1910 and 1913-1920 and mayor of Stege 1911-1913) – and that was back when mayors where appointed by the government, not locally elected. Poul Schlüter (PM 1982-1993) served as deputy mayor in my hometown Gladsaxe in the early 1970s after making an unsuccessful attempt at defeating Erhard Jakobsen.

Second, he will be taking over has heir presumptive. Believe it or not, this is highly unusual in Danish politics – between 1953 and 1968, the Social Democrats had no fewer than four Prime Ministers but as it was, there was no ordered succession. If Hans Hedtoft had lived and had had his way, it is not impossible to imagine that Jens Otto Krag had been Hedtoft’s chosen successor sometime during the 1960s. Hedtoft could have been another case as he was Th. Stauning’s chosen successor as party chairman, but due to the German occupation, Hedtoft could not become PM until 1947.² As it was, Stauning bypassed a couple of generations in promoting Hedtoft who was 30 years his junior.

Update: Factual correction about Løkke Rasmussen’s position in Græsted-Gilleleje.

1. Apologies for making LLR mayor of Græsted-Gilleleje, but he was a profiled deputy back in the early 1990s [↩]
2. For non-Danes: Stauning died in 1942 and was succeeded by Vilhelm Buhl after the Germans had forced Hedtoft to resign from his post. [↩]

So the old rumour mill is working overtime – helped by the Danish defence minister, no less – and an order for ten bespoke suits has been placed.

Well, just to hedge my bets, I’ve set up a Rasmussen-Rasmussen section on the Political Reviews page. If you’re looking for more gossip, I will have to disappoint you. If you are more into historical parallels (and lack thereof), the links are for your entertainment.

Update: Please pardon my French. It’s attendant, not attendent. And I got a “13″ in my high school exams…

While the world’s economic system is crashing all around us and Danish parliamentary politics have descended into some kind of absurd theatre, the questions about the futures of Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Finance Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen continue to occupy the media. Even if Løkke Rasmussen has been battered by media – latest by an opinion poll promising a massive decline in electoral support for the Liberals under his hypothetical leadership – he is still very much the heir presumptive, should Anders Fogh Rasmussen step down during this electoral term.

But political journalists’ speculations aside: What are the chances of a smooth handing-over of power in the Liberal party and the Prime Minister’s office?

As it is, Denmark is one of those countries where prime ministers do not go gently into that good night. Most have been thrown out of office, either by the electorate or parliament, and never succeeded in making a come-back, but dying in office also used to be a Danish speciality. If we look at the last resignation of prime ministers since 1901, the causes of political death were the following:

• Resigned voluntarily and handed over to chosen successor: Krag (1972)
• Resigned voluntarily: Friis (1920), Buhl (1945)¹
• Died in office or resigned due to illness: Stauning (1942), Hedtoft (1955), H.C. Hansen (1960), Kampmann (1962)²
• Lost internal support: Deuntzer (1905), Christensen (1908)³
• Lost parliamentary support: Holstein-Ledreborg (1909), Kristensen (1947)⁴, Hartling (1975), Jørgensen (1982), Schlüter (1993)
• Lost election: Berntsen (1913)⁵, Neergaard (1924), Madsen-Mygdal (1929), Eriksen (1953), Baunsgaard (1971), Nyrup Rasmussen (2001)
• Other: Zahle (1920), Liebe (1920), Scavenius (1943/5)

If we add that Krag’s resignation in 1972 came as a complete surprise to everybody and that Anker Jørgensen wasn’t in any way tipped as a successor and hadn’t even served as a government minister, the odds for a smooth transition of power begin to look high.

But how about the Liberal leadership? Here we have to discard the first 28 years of parliamentarism because the Liberal party technically didn’t exist as a national organisation before 1929, but since then the party has had eight chairmen. Most have ended with a whimper and not a bang:

1. Madsen-Mygdal 1929-1941 (marginalised politically)
2. Kristensen 1941-1949 (marginalised politically)
3. Sørensen 1949 (personal matters)
4. Eriksen 1949-1965 (failed in forming governments 1953, 1957, 1960, 1964)
5. Hartling 1965-1977 (failed in forming governments 1975, 1977, left for UNHCR)
6. Christophersen 1977-1985 (no chance of becoming PM, left for European Commission)
7. Ellemann-Jensen 1985-1998 (failed in forming governments 1994, 1998)
8. Fogh Rasmussen 1998-

Again, the prospects of a smooth transition are slim. This doesn’t mean that it can’t happen, but in a Danish historical perspective, it would be highly unusual. But then so is the right-wing majority governing since 2001.

Update: J.O. Krag resigned in 1972, not 1973.

1. Both Friis and Buhl are special cases. They should be considered interim Prime Ministers. [↩]
2. Four dead or seriously ill PMs in twenty years. Well done, Denmark [↩]
3. The Alberti scandal [↩]
4. Technically, Kristensen didn’t resign until after the 1947 election which gave the Liberals a massive win – but at the expense of potential partners [↩]
5. The fall-out of the 1913 election was complicated. Berntsen wanted to stay on, and he originally found support among Social-Liberals and Social Democrats but was denied by none other than I.C. Christensen [↩]

In the Danish political gossip, much of the attention has focussed on the future of Lars Løkke Rasmussen who has been deputy chairman of the Liberal Party since 1998 and Interior and Health Minister since 2001. In the latter role, he prepared and organised the wholesale reform of Danish local government which was implemented at the start of this year and if there is anything like a manhood test in Danish politics, preparing and implementing a reform like that is it.

But what to do next? Mr. Løkke Rasmussen has no obvious rivals in the Liberal Party and at the same time he has always been loyal to Anders Fogh Rasmussen as party leader and prime minister. This means that he – provided he doesn’t suffer a serious political or physical accident – is the heir presumptive, perhaps even the heir apparent, as leader of the Liberals and as prime minister. Again, if we look at the political chattering, expectations are that Mr. Fogh Rasmussen will resign and hand over his offices to Mr. Løkke Rasmussen in a couple of years’ time.

As it is, the gossip was right this time: Lars Løkke Rasmussen has taken over the Finance portfolio which was vacated when Thor Petersen, a veteran of the Schlüter and Fogh Rasmussen governments, was presented as the new speaker of the Danish parliament.

But where do prime ministers come from politically? The argument has been that the Finance portfolio is a heavyweight portfolio and that no portfolio of a similar weight would be available to Mr. Løkke Rasmussen. On the other hand, Finance is a demanding and notoriously tricky portfolio. A finance minister, per definition, is locked in conflict with the other government ministers.

If we look at the Danish prime ministers since the de facto adoption of parliamentary government in 1901, we find a variety of political careers but some finance ministers have made it to the top. If we list prime ministers after their last portfolio before becoming prime minister, the list is as follows:

• No prior government office: J.H. Deuntzer, L. Holstein-Ledreborg, C.Th. Zahle, Otto Liebe, M.P. Friis, Anker Jørgensen, Poul Schlüter, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen
• Foreign Affairs: Erik Scavenius, H.C. Hansen, Jens Otto Krag, Poul Hartling
• Finance: Niels Neergaard, Vilhelm Buhl, Viggo Kampmann
• Interior: Klaus Berntsen, Knud Kristensen
• Social Affairs and Employment: Th. Stauning, Hans Hedtoft
• Agriculture: Th. Madsen-Mygdal, Erik Eriksen
• Ecclesiastics: J.C. Christensen
• Trade: Hilmar Baunsgaard
• Taxes: Anders Fogh Rasmussen

As it is, H.C. Hansen actually served two terms as finance minister: In the 1945 liberation government and in Hans Hedtoft’s first government between 1947 and 1950. On the other hand, the finance ministers who made it to the top could best be described as political accidents. Neergaard had to take over after J.C. Christensen had been forced to resign following the Alberti scandal while Buhl stepped in after Th. Stauning’s death in 1942 as Stauning’s chosen successor Hans Hedtoft had been blocked from leading offices by the German occupation authorities.

Finally, Viggo Kampmann emerged as the only real candidate after H.C. Hansen’s death in 1960 but he lacked a proper base in the labour movement and for both political and personal reasons his time in office was an unhappy one.

If we look at the issue in the opposite perspective, then Finance has yielded a number of prominent casualties. Thorkil Kristensen (1945-1947 and 1950-1953) was a brilliant technocrat who believed he was a politician but lost the internal battle with Erik Eriksen during the 1950s.

In the 1960s, Finance earned a reputation of killing politicians one after the other: Social Democrats Hans R. Rasmussen and Poul Hansen were trusted hands who both died in or shortly after leaving office and the Conservatives’ Poul Møller succumbed to both political and physical pressures and had to resign in 1971 with a ruined health. Henry Grünbaum survived the challenge – if only because he was sidelined by Jens Otto Krag and Anker Jørgensen.

Things got a little better in the 1970s, partly because the portfolio was divided into one dealing with budgeting (Finance) and another dealing with taxes, but Knud Heinesen and Svend Jakobsen were both worn out by the pressures of the position and left active politics. Henning Christophersen left Danish politics in 1984 to become a European commissioner after realising that he would never make it to the prime minister’s office while Henning Dyremose was sidelined by Hans Engell in a ferocious power struggle in the Conservative People’s Party.

Finally, Mogens Lykketoft tried and failed in the 2005 election after being the central actor in Poul Nyrup Rasmussen’s governments during the 1990s. Lykketoft’s position was alleged to be so strong that political commentators occasionally joked that Nyrup Rasmussen was just the prime minister in Mogens Lykketoft’s government. It still didn’t bring Mr. Lykketoft any luck.

To sum up: Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s transfer from Interior and Health to Finance was expected but given the challenges ahead, he may find that being a Finance Minister can be a mixed blessing politically even if he is the prime minister’s chosen successor and does not have any serious political rivals in the Liberal Party.