The government which took office two days ago must count as one of the most ridiculously oversized cabinets in democratic countries – thirty full ministers, eight deputies – and, wait for it: despite having five ministers without portfolio, the government has no minister of health, so Prime Minister Netanyahu had to take on that job as well.

Now, as we all remember, the former government under Ehud Olmert had to resign due to corruption charges against the former prime minister, but it only took two days before the new Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman had to spend seven hours helping Israeli police in the investigation of … a corruption case.

So, how long can we expect Netanyahu’s second term in office to be?

Well, at least Israeli police will run investigations against senior political figures. Israel is not Italy, after all.

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Come September, Kadima will choose a new leader from the following candidates: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni; Minister of Security (and former head of the Shin Bet) Avi Dichter; and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz (former IDF Chief of Staff).

Tzipi Livni is known for her integrity, but lacks experience in coalition building. Avi Dichter lacks experience in foreign affairs and in domestic politics. Shaul Mofaz failed the officer’s examination several times when he was in the IDF; he is known as a man lacking in both humor and compassion – as well as experience. Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, the head of the Likud Party, was widely considered one of the worst prime ministers in Israel’s history when he was voted out of office in 1999. Unfortunately his replacement, Labor party leader Ehud Barak, managed to trump Bibi in the disastrous leadership department.

You’ll need a strong dose of Jewish humour to cope with that one, methinks.

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In Israel, mobile phones are also a problem – but it’s a slightly different group of people who create the troubles.

Shai Tsur, where are you?

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The Copenhageners were not too happy about that, citing only a 50-50 chance of progression to the next round.

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The attack follows the decision to grant the Refugee Minister of the Palestinian Authority Atef Adwan a visa to visit Sweden. Through Sweden’s membership in the Schengen Agreement Adwan’s visa also allowed him to visit a number of countries in the European Union even though the E.U. has decided to ban members of Hamas from entering the E.U.

According to reports, the German chancellor Angela Merkel was less than happy with the Swedish decision and Adwan’s visit to Germany has caused minor irritations as he was received by backbenchers from the Social Democratic and Liberal parties.

During his visit to Sweden, Adwan met representatives for the Green and Left parties as well as low-level representatives for the Social Democratic Party while representatives for the opposition centre-right parties rejected invitations.

Among the leading Hamas members, Adwan appear to be a relatively moderate voice which may help explain why the Swedish Consulate in Jerusalem decided to grant him a visa to Sweden. The Swedish Prime Minister has denied claims that the Swedish government was in any way involved in the handling of the visa application.

On the other hand, Göran Persson’s argument that authorities should distinguish between the Hamas as such and persons linked with Hamas may come across as rather odd given that Adwan holds an exectutive position in a Hamas-led government.

The application seems to have been cleared with immigration authorities in the other Schengen member countries but Swedish authorities may – for whatever reason – not have come entirely clear about Adwan’s affiliation with Hamas and position within the PA during the clearing process.

Speculations continue on all sides.

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Elections for State Legislatures in Germany

The elections in Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz and Sachsen-Anhalt were expected with some interest from the political class as they were the first major test of the Grand Coalition in Berlin, and you could argue that the coalition performed nicely at the polls as the Liberal Party turned out to be the main loser.

In Sachsen-Anhalt, the FDP lost nearly half of its votes while the quirks of the German electoral system meant that the SPD gained to overall majority in Rheinland-Pfalz.

From the point of view of the Chancellor, the good news then was that a Red-Yellow coalition in Rheinland-Pfalz will be replaced by a Social Democratic government and that the Black-and-Yellow coalition in Sachsen-Anhalt will be replaced by a Grand Coalition. All of this means that the Grand Coalition will control its own qualified majority in the Bundesrat and won’t have to take protests form state governments with Green, Leftist or Liberal coalition partners into account.

The bad news was that not too many voters cared. The turn-out in Baden-Württemberg (one of Germany’s richest states) and Sachsen-Anhalt (one of the poorest) fell through the floor. Only 44% of the voters in Sachsen-Anhalt could be bothered to vote.

I’m a bit tired right now, so I’ll just post some links to sites with a comprehensive coverage in German:

• Frankfuter Allgemeine Zeitung: Landtagswahlen.
• Süddeutsche Zeitung: Landtagswahlen 2006.
• Die Zeit: Landtagswahlen 2006.

Israel: New Parties, Old People and Not Too Many Voters

The Israeli elections must have been a nightmare for pollsters.

First, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon left his own party and founded a new one with basically one issue on its programme: Disengagement from the Palestinian Territories (or most of them, anyway). Upheavals like this usually mess up the finely tuned models used by polling organisations, effectively leaving the result of the elections unpredictable.

Second, the very same Sharon suffered a massive stroke which left him in a long-term coma and probably brain-damaged. Sharon was replaced by his less than charismatic deputy Ehud Olmert and at this point most sensible pollsters would shurely have considered getting out of business fast.

In the end, the opinion polls missed the target as Sharon’s Kadima Party only gained around 30 seats – instead of the predicted 40 – in the new Knesset. Negotiations leading up to the formation of new governments are usually a messy business in Israel and I think that will be a safe prediction this time.

Turn-out was low in Israel as well and if we exclude the demographic and legal complexities regarding the true level of turn-out, I think we can find two general explanations in this case:

• The question of disengagement vs. continued presence in the West Bank was not the only issue in the campaign but it was a major one. The problem is that while military and settler presence in the West Bank hasn’t guaranteed Israeli security, it is very uncertain if disengagement will have the desired consequences. There’s not much to be enthusiastic about even if you are a dove.
• With regard to the next government, voters faced the choice between Ehud Olmert and – well – Ehud Olmert. Likud was heading for collapse and Labor is not a major independent force in Israeli politics. Add a scattering of ethnic and religious parties and what you have is Kadima as the only centre in a new government.

For the record: I’ve enjoyed reading Israeli blogger Shai Tsur’s posts about the campaign. His Wednesday Morning Quarterback post is here. You may want to check out his Flikr photosets from the campaign and the election day as well.

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The introduction of the secret ballot put some limits to strategies of intimidation but a fascinating story from the Israeli election campaign shows that with a little imagination, you can still implement scare tactics.

The story concerns Rabbi Ovadia Yosef who is the spiritual leader of the religious Shas party and who is accused of using illegal curses against Israelis who do not vote for the party.

It is not the first time that Shas has been the centre of controversy: A former party leader was convicted of corruption some years ago and back in 1996 Rabbi Yosef distributed amulets to people who promised to vote for the party. That move significantly improved the party’s share of the vote but led to the outlawing of such practices.

In case you think that Shas is led by a bunch of religious maniacs – that may be so, but as a religious party Shas has often been able to place itself in the centre of Israeli politics. Religious parties are fairly indifferent with regard to the question of Israeli borders as long as their coalition partners support religious institutions and provide generous social benefits.

On a linguistic perspective: If Israeli legislation makes some curses illegal, which curses can then be applied legally? The Danish Social Democrats might need some urgent help and inspiration here.

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If we leave aside the troublesome question of women’s headgear in the Middle-East, then it is an established fact that Yasser Arafat used his keffiyeh as a political symbol. (Arafat’s keffiyeh was deliberately arranged not in any traditional manner but in the shape of the state of Israel with Arafat’s head symbolising the West Bank).

An interesting observation is that Rudy Giuliani lost his combover following the September 11 attacks. It could be that his performance following the attacks meant that he didn’t feel the need to appear masculine in the traditional way. Or maybe it was linked to his divorce and subsequent re-marriage.

Oh, and by the way: Binyamin Netanyahu really should consider a visit to a hairdresser.

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