Jacob Christensen

Notes from the Outside of the Inside

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What’s Eating the Danish Government?

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The development since the September 2011 election must surely go down in history as one of the strangest periods in Danish politics. It may not be on the same level as the 1973-74II session in the Folketing which followed the 1973 earthquake election and which was one of the most tumultuous times in Danish political history but the miserable start to the three-party government’s life has been extraordinary, especially given that the present government and its supporting party, the Red-Greens, had enjoyed a lead in opinion polls during a long period leading up to the election.

So, how can we explain the malaise? Maybe we need a combination of factors to get to the core of the problem.

The Economy
The 2008 fiscal crisis hit Denmark – and in particular the financial sector – hard even if Denmark continues to enjoy AAA (or comparable) ratings by international agencies. Unemployment may not be on the levels of the early 1990s but there is a real fear among many both in the private and public sectors that they could be hit by unemployment. Similarly, the bursting of the housing bubble has seen a lot of savings vanishing into thin air – not least among those who bought houses or apartments during 2004-2008.

The question is if Danish voters have a real sense of crisis. The latest rounds of wage negotiations suggest that the private sector trade unions fearing a continued haemorrhage of manufacturing jobs but the among voters the expectation could still be that the changing governments ought to do something effective against the continuing low growth following the downturn in 2008-2009.

So maybe first the Liberal-Conservative and now the Social Democratic-Social Liberal-SF governments are hit by the same curse: Lack or crisis-consciousness and short-sightedness among voters.

The Positions
For most of the 1990s and 2000s Danish politics has been described as a battle for the centrist voters, a battle the Social Democrats curiously lost as the became ever more “centrist” and “responsible” in economic policy. Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s big accomplishment was to move the Liberals to the centre (or median voter) on both economic and social (i.e. immigration, law-and-order) issues.

Here, I have heard pollsters argue that voters saw the Liberals as more (though by no means extreme) right-wing in 2011 compared to 2007. This was something which opened the field for the centre-left. The problem was that the Social Democrats continued to be seen as left-wing and thus less attractive to centrist voters – some of which would never vote for the Social Liberals.

Maybe the resolution of the debate surrounding the Early Retirement Benefit helped making some of the Liberals’ perceived move to the right less important and in that way, the Liberals have been able to pull back lost voters – even if we should be aware of the fact that the Liberal strategy during much of the time since the election has been taking a passive stance. In many ways, the Liberals are what different voters imagine them to be – a bit like the Swedish Social Democrats in the period following the 2006 election when the party was without a leader.

So the question is what happens if the Liberals take a more active role and have to decide if they should become more centrist or more liberal/right-wing.

The Issues
The government has become known (especially in Berlingske Tidende) as the government which broke all of its pre-election promises except the one about introducing a congestion charge for Central Copenhagen – and that one has had local Social Democratic politicians in the metropolitan area up in arms. Mobilising voters behind such a policy is not easy but the government is also facing the problem that it was forced to pass and implement the cuts in the early retirement benefit, a move which was deeply unpopular among Social Democratic and SF voters. In many other areas, the government doesn’t really stand out – at least yet.

So the government has been successful in passing the wrong reform while struggling to get its own issues on the political agenda.

The Competences
Much has been said about the leaders of the Social Democrats and SF and some of the criticism points to interesting – and to some degree unexpected – weaknesses.

In my opinion, Helle Thorning-Schmidt is in many ways strategically defensive: She is good at defusing potential conflicts but this may come at the price of weakening the Social Democratic agenda. She did manage to put a working three-party coalition together but at the cost of a clearly communicated profile. (Editor’s note: How does this go together with the perceived left-wing position of the party?)

Similarly, the weakness of the SF leadership is puzzling. Between 2006 and 2010, Villy Søvndal and his entourage could hardly put a foot wrong but the party appears to have been left drifting since the summer of 2011. I find this strange given the process of political and organisational modernisation, Søvndal led. Here, more research is definitively needed.

So: It is Pining for the Fjords?
Four years is a long time in politics – much can happen to the economy (even if the Nyrup Rasmussen government lost the 2001 election despite the economy being in good shape) and we could see a ketchup bottle-effect with the government setting unmistakable prints on the political agenda. Will the Liberals’ laid-back strategy work all the way to 2015 (or 2014. Or whatever)? Will SF buckle under the pressure or will the junior partner in the government be able to reorganise itself? As the experience from Sweden 2006-2010 shows, it is dangerous calling the game to early, but the Danish government is facing problems on different levels.

Written by Jacob Christensen

February 18th, 2012 at 5:48 pm

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Play-School or Parliament?

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Today’s Politiken has an article where a number of new MPs complain about the dominant culture in the Danish parliament. Their basic line of argument is that political debate has degenerated into endless repetitions of obvious questions and arguments and that much political behaviour now verges on (if it hasn’t already crossed) the border of victimising.

It is difficult to gauge the argument without extensive studies of parliamentary debates but the observation merits discussion.

First, one of the MPs (Mette Bock) makes the obvious mistake of confusing a parliament with a business. A business corporation has a limited number of goals (produce goods or services, create a profit) while a parliament as a representative organ is one of the major arena for social conflicts. Of course power struggles are part of most, if not all, organisations, but observers of parliamentary business are well-advised to remember that behind most of the work done in any parliament there are more or less manifest conflicts of interests or values.

Second, this means that politicians in general and parliamentarians in particular face two tasks: Solve problems and mobilise voters and social interests. These tasks are not always easy to handle in isolation. Combine them and things get very complicated. We should also note, that if problem-solving gets the upper hand there is a risk that citizens will feel less engagement and perhaps even feel alienated from the policy elite. If mobilisation gets the upper hand, we end in pointless polemics – and voters may end being disgusted by destructive politics.

On the other hand, voters appreciate constructive politics and – as everyone who has checked the Facebook-pages of politicians and political commentators – polemical and condescending attacks on political opponents will invariably draw hordes of cheering supporters. If this sounds confusing, you are on the trail of something important: Voters’ preferences are contradictory.

If you – like me – have read a large number of political debates, you will be depressingly familiar with the polemical style. This is not limited to one particular wing of the political spectrum, but usually the opposition of the day is the most obnoxious part. To me, the problem is that polemics and “gotcha” questions and statements more often than not fail to bring something new to the process. Most Danish politicians are fascinatingly inept at this.

And personally, I tune out when the familiar type of polemics begin.

Written by Jacob Christensen

February 2nd, 2012 at 6:51 pm

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Some facts about the Danish Social Democrats

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I was looking for some data about the Danish Social Democrats for an article. Unfortunately, the internet (and in particular the material posted by the Danish Royal Library) can be a frustrating tool but here are some facts which interested me – not least because a comparison with Sweden could be worth an effort:

1. The Danish party has reformed its central organisation during the 00s: The old party board and executive committee were merged into a new board.

2. The statutes have rules for a direct election of the party chairman

3. Membership has continued its downward trend, despite an increase in 2005-06 following the leadership election. In 2003 the party had 54700 members, in 2010 it was down to 46050. The Social Democrats can take some solace in the fact that the party once again is the largest in terms of members after losing the position to the Liberals some time during the 1990s. In 2003 the Liberals had 69800 members, in 2010 they were down to 44400.

4. LO (the Danish TUC) no longer supports the Social Democrats but the party continues to receive some support from individual unions. Still, public subsidies are the largest sources of income by far.

Written by Jacob Christensen

January 31st, 2012 at 1:32 am

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Dignified vs. Efficient: 2012 Edition

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Cudos to Ida Auken, MP for SF and Environment Minister in the three-party government, for drawing our attention to the State Council, one part of the Danish government which most people would be absolutely clueless about if you asked them in a vox-pop but still consider an essential part of the very special Danish form of democracy. Needless to say, the Danish People’s Party went ballistic and the Liberals and the Conservatives argued that any discussion of the Danish constitution amounted to sacrilege and an attack on everything the Sacred Danish Culture is built on.

If the three parties had their way, the minister would surely be banished to some remote island, just like others who dared to question the role of the monarch in the Danish political system.

Anyway, and on a serious note, we are dealing with the relationship between what Walter Bagehot called the dignified and the efficient components of the constitution with the State Council being one of the dignified components with no efficient political role: The Danish Monarch, unlike the German president, does not have an effective right or duty to perform a judicial review of new laws. Still, the Council and its duties are described in the Danish constitution and given that changing the constitution is almost impossible, we will all have to live with the illusion that the Monarch and the State Council have a political role. That Danish media do not report about the meetings and that the Monarch have more efficient, if technically informal, ways of being informed about current events in Danish politics is another matter.

These days, Danish political culture is mainly about creating and maintaining the illusion that we live in the 19th century – or rather: An imagined 19th century in which the sovereign powers of the Monarch were never challenged and Denmark never suffered military defeat.

Given the way the legislative machine works, there is very little which can be done to minimize the role of the State Council: Every ministry churns out new laws every month in numbers that are now too big to count which again means that ministers have to be present to do their presentations. Perhaps it would be possible to assign duties on a rotating basis and avoid meetings that are only designed to ramp up the numbers.

Written by Jacob Christensen

January 15th, 2012 at 12:00 pm

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Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s New Year’s Speech

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First, I don’t think it is relevant to see Thorning-Schmidt’s New Year’s speech as the last chance for the government. On the other hand, it wasn’t a speech like Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s 2002 or Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s 2011 speech which managed to define a political agenda.

Thorning-Schmidt’s main problem was to strike a balance between creating a traditonal crisis consciousness on the one hand (hardships are brought upon us from the outside) and the rights-and-duties discourse on the other. The “Søren”-story was a traditional appeal to solidarity but there was no comparable case about the rights-and-duties dimension.

Part of Thorning-Schmidt’s problem is that work on tax reform and benefits reform is still in the initial stages which limits her possibilites for being specific about policies. This is something which has also led the government into problems during the past months with accussations against Helle Thorning-Schmidt for lacking a political project.

All in all: A good but not brilliant speech. A 7 on the new Danish scale.

Update: Here is the Wordle

Written by Jacob Christensen

January 1st, 2012 at 8:31 pm

The Line of Poverty and Other Complications in Social Policy

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Okay, okay: One last post before 2012 kicks in…

“Carinagate” may have been the political blunder of the year but if we think twice, Özlem Cekic’s badly chosen case actually raises some relevant questions about social policy. Unfortunately, Cekic’s framing meant that her initiative backfired so badly that it now risks completely to turn the political debate in the direction of envy (recipients are either lazy, rich or otherwise undeserving) than in the direction of considering the means and goals in social policy.

So, as a free lunch, here are my thoughts about the mess brought up by Özlem Cekic, Joachim B. Olsen and Ekstra Bladet.

Carina is not poor. Is that a problem?
Carina, the thirtysomething single mother on cash benefit, whom Özlem Cekic used as a case in her campaining for poor families turned out not not to be poor if the official OECD line of poverty was applied. Once we looked at the data, there were two reasons for this: 1. She has a child and 2. She receives a housing allowance due to the high rent of her apartment. Oh, and with one child Carina is hardly a case of a welfare queen.

Personally, I do not think that children should grow up in poverty in a country like Denmark (or any country, but this is another matter), so viewed from the child’s perspective, Carina’s economic and social situation is acceptable. If the child grows up in somewhat ordered circumstances, its chances of finishing school and getting an education is higher and this is good for all parties.

But then the problems begin. Housing policy has been a mess in Denmark for a long time and Carina is in fact among the losers. This is why she receives a housing benefit. One problem is that public housing was financed in an expensive way from the 1960s on while insiders on the housing market perfectly legally were able to rent cheap apartments. Others faced the choice between an expensive new apartment or buying a bigger, cheaper house. A no-brainer. In terms of housing, however, Carina as an outsider is stuck. And this is bad for all parties.

We should also ask why the authorities over a period of 20 years basically parked Carina on long-term benefits and apparently never seriously reviewed her case and offered her help with her condition. It is very difficult for anybody – even experts – to diagnose people from a distance but a number of people – from case-workers up – should ask themselves if the handling of psychiatric and somatic conditions is adequate. If people who would be able to work are left outside the workforce, everybody lose. And this is very bad for all parties.

I haven’t read Lisbeth Zornig Andersen‘s autobiography but it is obvious to me that Carina unlike Lisbeth Zornig never met somebody who had the power and engagement to push open the doors of the educational and social systems. This is bad and we might ask how we engage people in various kinds of social work and how social programmes can be organised to rehabilitate people who fail to get an education or enter the labour market.

One final thought: The level of social benefits always raises the issue of the relationship between benefits and wages. Ideally, we would want people to have a decent level of security while keeping an economic motive to work (there are other motives besides money, btw) and not putting public finances under too much stress. This is not an easy equation to solve. But we should remember that means-tested cash benefits are only available to people who have depleted their means. This means: No home-ownership and no savings. Not an enviable situation. The situation is different for unemployment benefits and similar programmes.

General benefits vs. means-testing
The other issue which has captured the public mind is the existence of a number of social policy programmes that cover the entire population, most notably the general old-age pension and the child allowance. The typical criticism against this type of programmes is that 1. benefits are paid to people who do not need them and consequently that 2. the programmes create a system where everybody pays money to everybody.

We might expect that voters would react by being more positive to programmes directed at people in need but the fact is that means-tested programmes are often viewed less favourably than general programmes and that people receiving means-tested benefits are often viewed with suspicion. Voters do not like paying for people who do not resemble them: The greater the distance between voters and the poor, the harder it is for politicians to mobilise support for social policy programmes. Someone once coined the phrase that “Welfare for the poor is poor welfare”.

This is not entirely correct: A country like Germany has targeted programmes but also quite generous health care and old-age pensions programmes, but it is true that we should not assume that money saved by not paying benefits or providing services to high-income earners can be used to make social policy programmes more effective.

Another issue is that means-testing creates marginal economic effects and while it may seem easy to create some kind of discretionary or rule-based deductions for one programme, things get really complicated when taxes and a number of transfers and services are added to the equation. So, politically, economically and administratively it may be easier and cheaper to make some programmes available to all citizens.

As they say on Facebook: “It’s complicated”. Anyone promising easy solutions is selling snake oil.

Written by Jacob Christensen

December 29th, 2011 at 10:00 am

Impending Doom of 2012 II: Taking the Euro out of Europe

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Over the years, I have voted on the European Monetary Union twice – or even three times, depending on how you count: The 1992 Maastricht referendum in Denmark, the 2003 EMU referendum in Sweden – and technically speaking the 1993 Danish referendum on the Edinburgh agreement also included the issue of Denmark’s relation to the future monetary union. Among us, I will admit to having voted “yes” both (all three) times even if I had become more critical of the project over the years.

The EMU raises a number of political and economic issues. Basically, there were two arguments for the monetary union: First, it should facilitate trade in the EU; second, it should help create a common identity. The question here is if the EMU and the single currency were and are necessary conditions for reaching either goal – even if we should also be critical of developments on the financial markets, they have come up with a number of instruments designed to lower the costs of currency fluctuations during the past thirty years and as for bank notes as a means of creating identity, well, yes and no. The Deutschmark-nationalism is a well-known fact.

Back in the early 1990s, I found the technicalities of the entire adventure hard to grasp even if I actually attended a lecture where Niels Thygesen explained the process and the institutional set-up. Maybe I was theoretically challenged, maybe Thygesen wasn’t a master of didactics or maybe there was some kind of flaw in the political set-up. Still, all things considered I thought the Maastricht package was better than letting what was then the EC go sideways.

In 2003, I had some more specific issues with the EMU. In 2000 the Danish Economic Council had more or less destroyed the basis of the “yes”-campaign by pointing out that joining the EMU had no economic benefits for Denmark – an important part of the reason was that the Danish currency had been pegged to the D-Mark and later the proto-Euro since 1982 – and that membership was a purely political question. We would have expected Danish politicians to receive this conclusion enthusiastically but the problem is that Danish EU-politics in general has relied on de-politicising issues related to Europe. Similarly, monetary policy has been depoliticised in most Western countries since the 1980s by handing over competences to the national reserve banks.

The situation in Sweden was – and is – slightly different, as the Swedish currency has been floating since the mid-1990s so technically Sweden has some degrees of freedom with regard to monetary policy which Denmark do not have.

In any case voters are a curious bunch: They do not like “politics” but on the other hand they do not like the idea of not having any actual influence on central political issues – such as economic growth and employment.

And this was one major problem with the EMU: It is copied on the (West-)German post-war tradition of fiscal and monetary policy which basically states that employment and economic growth are subordinate to price stability, so if you adopt the EMU, you also make a political choice which not everybody would agree in.

Another problem is that EMU assumes that economic development in all member countries follows the same economic cycle. This raises the question what happens when some countries are going through an economic slump while others are in a boom. The EMU does not have the instruments to deal with this situation, except banning countries with weak growth from boosting their economies. There are more problems, but this will illustrate the political-economic-institutional corner the EMU countries risked painting themselves into.

Finally there was the question about governance in the EMU. Having guidelines is all very well, but problems arise when they are not followed. A more thorough examination of Greece’s political and economic institutions would probably have kept the country out of the EMU to the benefit of both Greece and the EMU. Similarly, France and Germany forced the EMU to bend its rules with regard to deficits and debt in the early 2000s.

Add a major global economic slump and the EMU vehicle is very likely to hit the wall in a violent matter. We are now in a situation where four or five EMU countries are facing a choice between a decade of severe austerity and slow (if any) growth on the one hand or leaving the EMU suffering the penalties of the financial markets. This is a recipe for severe social disorder: 2012 may not be 1932 but politicians and bureaucrats would still do well to remember the name “Heinrich Brüning”, the German chancellor whose technocratic austerity policies led Germany to the brink of civil war.

At the same time, politicians are slowly recognising that the existing political-economic institutions are inadequate and have to be amended. But, first, passing institutional reforms in the multi-level EU system is notoriously tricky, and, second, the process has already revealed the cracks in the relationships between EU countries. It is not outlandish to consider the possibility of the UK leaving the EU or the Eurozone breaking up into two or more parts.

So to conclude: What the EU needs now is not another patchwork agreement (even if the Union has to muddle through in the short and medium term) but a reassessment of the raison d’être of a political and monetary union and the adequacy of its institutions.

Written by Jacob Christensen

December 18th, 2011 at 8:22 pm

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Impending Doom of 2012 I: SF Going Down in Flames

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Given my general mood, I thought it would be appropriate to end 2011 with a discussion of some things which could go terribly wrong in 2012 and leave us – to use a popular expression – FUBAR‘ed. Being a political scientist I have chosen to concentrate on political matters, beginning with the bad and ending with the utterly terrible.

But first a warning: There will be no massive earthquakes, tsunamis or exploding nuclear power plants here. This is much, much worse.

We begin at home, with the Danish coalition government which was already shaky at its conception and after a couple of months looks more rattled than any Danish government since the SocDem-Liberal government of 1978-1979. The worst thing is that that government was the result of a parliamentary accident and gross miscalculations while the SocDem-SF alliance had been carefully negotiated and prepared.

Or so we thought.

Two problems troubling the three-party government in general and SF in particular are that a) SF lost votes and seats in the election and b) the Social Liberals, not SF held the decisive seats and knew how to use them. The result is a construct which looks as if it could implode at any moment.

But how likely is an implosion of SF and the three-party government and what would the long-term effects be?

First of all, Danish parties seldom break up while they are in government but during the course of the last sixty or so years, we have seen some cases of parties suffering serious internal conflicts due to government participation. Consider this list: The Justice Party (beaten into oblivion after participating in the 1957-1960 triangle government), The Social Liberals and the Conservatives (deep factional conflicts during and after participating in the 1968-1971 VKR-government), the Social Liberals (during and after participating in the 1988-1990 KVR-government) and the Conservatives (in the latter stages of the 2001-2011 VK-government). And then there is of course the “Red Cabinet” of 1966-1967 which led to a major split in SF and years of internal struggle even after the formation of VS.

So as you can see, it is perfectly possible for SF to find itself in a state of internal conflicts and if factional struggles break out, they are likely to weaken the party for a decade with the Red-Green Alliance ready to pick up the spoils.

Even worse: The driving force behind factional strife has generally been a perceived or real lack of political efficacy. The Justice Party was anti-state but failed to stop the expansion of the welfare state (it was also becoming irrelevant because the war rationings had been abolished by the mid-1950s), the Social Liberals were torn between liberal economics and radical cultural policy, the Conservatives were a low-tax party presiding over the biggest increase in taxes in Danish history. And so on, and so forth.

The general agreement is that SF was the big loser in the negotiations and based on historical evidence, this puts the party in a very dangerous situation where internal conflicts could erupt at any moment. And even if the Social Liberals would love to see SF go down in flames, they should think twice before pouring the champagne.

What the Social Liberals should consider is that the Social Democrats continue to be in the electoral doldrums: They have lost votes in every national election since the surprise victory in 1998 and consequently the mobilisation of voters for the left-wing depends of the Social Liberals, SF or the Red-Greens being successful. If SF implodes, this effectively leaves the Social Liberals with the Red-Greens as the only realistic ally in so far that “blue” working-class voters do not revert to the Liberals and the Danish People’s Party as they did during the 2000s making left-wing politics irrelevant.

In fact, the implosion of SF is more than likely to result in another decade of right-wing government after the next election: A result the Social Liberals would grudgingly admit that they would hate even more than having SF in government.

So the Social Liberals are in fact faced with a curious dilemma. While they want to promote the Social Liberal economic programme, they should ideally also consider strategies that could help boosting support for SF. That SF’s leaders haven’t helped themselves by leaving the party organisation in a vacuum following the election is another matter.

Written by Jacob Christensen

December 15th, 2011 at 11:55 pm

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The Taxman Cometh

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This – to put it mildly – was not pretty to watch. Many had suspected that the personal advisor of former Minister of Taxation, Liberal hopeful Troels Lund Poulsen was indeed the man behind the leaking of documents about Social Democratic leader and present Prime Minister Helle Thorning Schmidt and now we pretty much have it in the open.

An inquiry will be chewing through the evidence about the involvement of a number of high-ranking civil servants and politicians during the coming year, and I suspect that one or the other skeleton will be brought to light. This also means that we should be careful in making early judgements.

However, what we do know, is this:

1. The tax case did hurt Helle Thorning Schmidt and the Social Democrats: Support for the party fell noticeably both times the case hit the frontpages. From a purely party political/tactical view, exposing the case was very clever.

2. Peter Arnfeldt, special advisor to Tax Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, was involved in the leaking of the Thorning Schmidt case.

3. Peter Loft, the long-serving permanent secretary in the Ministry of Taxation, took a special interest in the case.

Would we need to know is:

1. How and why did Arnfeldt get access to the Thorning Schmidt case?
2. Did the ministry, in particular permament secretary Peter Loft, try to put pressure on Skat København in the handling of the case?
3. Did Arnfeldt act independently or was Troels Lund Poulsen in any way informed or otherwise involved?
4. …and was the press office of the Liberal Party and the party leader, then-Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen informed or otherwise involved, either by Arnfeldt or Lund Poulsen?
5. When Loft realised that papers regarding the Thorning Schmidt case had been leaked, why didn’t he immediately inform the permanent secretary of the Prime Minister’s Office?

Erling Andersen’s and Peter Loft’s reports to the Minister are published here. They are part of the material behind the Tas Minister’s decision to call for a full inquiry.

The case raises a number of other issues: The relationship between “special advisors” and other staff, the relationship between “special advisors” and other political sources on the one hand and political journalists on the other, limits for journalists’ protection of their sources, the norms guiding the political competition, etc, etc. But each one of these would merit busloads of blog-posts.

Written by Jacob Christensen

December 4th, 2011 at 6:42 pm

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The Cekic Effect, or: How to Pwn Yourself

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Occasionally, things happen that are so weird that you wouldn’t believe them if somebody tried to fictionalise them. Back in the 1990s the UK Prime Minister John Major famously tried to revive his party’s flagging fortunes by declaring that the party should go “back to basics“. No sooner had Major made his big declaration before the Conservatives were flooded with endless sex scandals – one more bizarre than the other – and stories of corruption.

So maybe SF should have been warned: Trying to go back to basics does include some political risks.

The attempt to put poverty on the political agenda should have been an obvious winner – with all the elegance of a herd of bulls in a china shop, Liberal Alliance’s Joachim B. Olsen had attacked earlier demands for Christmas benefits for people receiving social benefits (In Denmark, LA is also known as Team Saxo Bank with a reference to one of the party’s sponsors whose founders a strong adherents of the teachings of Ayn Rand). In political terms, Olsen looked like a sitting duck.

Unfortunately, SF MP Özlem Cekic hadn’t done her homework properly when she produced a single mother on benefits, trying to make a living for 15.000 DKK a month, presenting her as a case of Danish poor and an argument for the need for an official Danish definition of poverty. The thing blew up immediately: Following the OECD’s guidelines, the woman couldn’t be defined as poor and the debate immediately put the relationship between benefits and work income, rather than the conditions of people on the borders of and outside the labour market, at the centre of the agenda. Even worse from the perspective of SF, the latter-day descendants of Jakob Knudsen have won this round of the fight.

In short, Cekic and SF had pwned themselves more effectively than anybody on the right-wing of Danish politics could have hoped for.

I will leave aside the interesting question about poverty and benefits here and just ask: How did SF mess up the story so badly. After all, the party went through an impressive transformation since 2005 which made it much more professional and streamlined in its public relations. We really should have expected a better performance.

One answer could be that Özlem Cekic is a bit of a loose cannon and that the party leadership is struggling to control her. That she is motivated more by instinct than calculation would only make the faux pas more likely. All parties are plagued by rogue politicians but SF’s main problem is that its political profile has faded during the last year and the party can’t really allow itself any major blunders in the public eye.

Keeping control of loose cannons, however, is easier when the parliamentary leadership is working properly and as commentators have pointed out, SF has a bit of a problem here. Party chairman Villy Søvndal is busy establishing himself as foreign minister, the former chairman of the parliamentary group Ole Sohn is rattled both by loss of status in the internal hierarchy and allegations of his past and Thor Möger Petersen lacks a basis in the parliamentary group. Add that the choice of new group chairman after the formation of the government was a surprise and seen as a snub to the party leadership, and we have a very messy situation on our hands.

As a party which is new in government and as a party of the left (as in: to the left of the Social Democrats), SF faces special problems and the process leading up to the formation of the three-party government should give the party leadership ground for concern.

In the meantime, “doing a Cekic” will be the Danish equivalent of “going back to basics”.

Written by Jacob Christensen

December 2nd, 2011 at 1:42 am

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