Some more general observations:
1. I watched the recording of the party leaders’ debate in DR1 yesterday. Perhaps we should note that Lars Løkke Rasmussen managed to stand still. And that he played the private life card (Father’s prostate cancer). This is a novum. I doubt that the debate was a game-changer, but these debates seldom are.
2. Leave aside the general question of the avalanche of opinion polls, my impression is that Voxmeter consistently has had the “Red” and the “Blue” side neck-and-neck while other polling companies have had a relatively clear “Red” lead. So: Was Voxmeter or everybody else consistently wrong? Tomorrow evening we will know.
3. Despite the occasional surfacing of immigration on the agenda, it has been dominated by economy and employment. Electoral studies will hopefully show more, but I suspect that the “Blue” side failed in driving wedges between SocDem/SF and SocLib/Red-Greens.
4. Still, in the event of a “Red” victory there will be problems. The Red-Greens will have to accept that they are somehow the parliamentary basis of a SocDem-SF(-SocLib) government but there really is no way such a government can make economic policy with the Red-Greens. If the RGs get so big that the three other parties do not hold a plurality relative to Lib/Cons/DPP/LA, there will be trouble. The SocLibs would love to have the Conservatives to jump ship and make economic policy agreements with a “Red Triangle” – but can the Conservatives and SF survive this?
5. The absence of Europe – and any discussion about what the risk of a melt-down in the EMU might mean for the Danish economy can be noted. The next government could find itself facing an uphill (as in “Hors Categorie”) task here trying to mobilise support for whatever emergency policies that have to be put in place from October onwards.
6. Traditionally, the Social Liberals have the highest concentration of oversized egos among Danish parties in their party organisation and parliamentary group. It can be bad enough with 7-9 MPs, but imagine 15-20 MPs with egos that not only will not fit through a door but may best be described as zeppelin-sized (Ed: You do know that the Hindenburg went down in flames? JC: Yes) things are bound to get … interesting. Especially with a government strung up between the Conservatives and the Red-Greens.
7. A “Blue” victory will not make things any easier: We have everything from nationalists to libertarians in this bunch. We have a battered Conservative Party, a Danish People’s Party going for a higher profile, and an untested group of LA MPs.
8. I am not surprised that support for SF has been waning during 2011 – some of the 2007 result was due to the lack of an alternative on the left wing. It is more interesting that the Social Democrats have not been able to capitalise on the developments. I see unrest within both SocDem and SF, even in the case of a “Red” victory.