“Politiko” in today’s Berlingske (not on the web as far as I can see) has a note about the Christian Democrats and their chances of passing the electoral threshold at the coming election. While Berlingske is correct in noting that the party is stuck around 0,7 percent of the vote (give and take a margin of error), the party’s chances of (re)entering parliament in 2011 may be better than expected.
The thing is that the law operates with three different thresholds. According to section 77, a party will be included in the distribution of additional members if it wins
1. 2 percent of the national vote.
2. One seat in one of the constituencies (“storkredse”).
3. Winning at least as many votes in two of the three provinces (“landsdele”) as the average number of valid votes cast in the respective province per constituency seat.
It is clause #2 which is of interest here. In 2007, ChrDem won 30.000 votes of which around 9.200 votes in the Western Jutland constituency. The last constituency seat was won with a quota of 18.666 votes. (“Folketingsvalget den 13. november 2007“, p. 70). So, the best strategy for the ChrDems will probably be to make a strong regional campaign in Western Jutland and targeting dissatisfied voters from the Liberals. It will be difficult but it may not be impossible (cf. Kirsten Jacobsen in 1998 even if the Progress Party also managed to pass clause #1 to everyone’s surprise) and a constituency seat in Western Jutland could win the party two seats in the next Folketing.
HT to Flemming Juul Christiansen for the pointer.