At the time of writing, it looks like Birthe Rønn Hornbech will either resign or be sacked as Immigration Minister on Tuesday. In all likelihood, she will formally ask to be relieved of her duties no matter who does the jumping or pushing.
This leaves us with the next question: Who should take over the portfolio?
Jarl Cordua suggests that Rønn Hornbech’s resignation could trigger a reshuffle but I doubt it: Even if the government does have its share of lemons, making a medium-sized or major reshuffle shortly before an election is an extremely risky strategy. It comes close to admitting defeat.
Politiken tells us that Employment Minister Inger Støjberg is the favourite to replace Rønn Hornbech in what would then be a minimal reshuffle. This sounds more likely, but there are complications. Støjberg holds one large portfolio (Employment) and the question is if she can combine Immigration and Employment given that Immigration will take up some work following the citizenship for stateless immigrants affair. Then there is Eccesiastics to consider, given that I really can’t see Rønn Hornbech continuing in that portfolio. Still, that one could be attached to one of the existing ministers like, say, Per Stig Møller, or Tina Nedergaard.
I’m not sure about taking the Liberal political spokesman Peter Christensen (no relation!) into the government: The Liberals need all their attack dogs. Perhaps Løkke could pull a surprise and let someone like Britta Schall Holberg have a final call before she ends her political career.
One thing is certain: Tuesday evening we will all be much wiser.
Update: That Rønn was thrown out of office was unsurprising but education minister Tina Nedergaard’s resignation must be a bit of a blow to the PM. Highly unusual that a minister resigns voluntarilly so close to an election.