Oh, well: One of my readers tricked me into making a prediction.
We still have no indication about when the next election to the Folketing will be called. The ball is on the prime minister’s part of the pitch and he can call an election with three week’s notice. The best guesses would probably be some time in January (provided Lars Løkke Rasmussen makes a splash in his new year’s speech), April (this has to do with the coming round of collective bargaining in the public sector) or September (before the opening of the 2011-2012 parliamentary year), but short-term movements in the public opinion will no doubt be followed extremely closely by Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Lene Espersen.
The electoral agenda seems to have moved from immigration to “classic” themes like the economy and public services. I have also seen figures which imply that the government has lost the advantage that the bourgeois bloc has enjoyed with regard to health services since the late 1990s.
Still, the likely outcome is a much more complicated Folketing than the ones we have known since 2001 where the government has been able to govern with the support of DF. If the government manages to survive, it will depend on DF and LA whose political agendas are very different. Similarly, an S-SF government (in itself a novum in Danish politics) will rely on either DF or the Red-Greens and the Social Liberals to pass its policies.
As it is, the next Danish prime minister (Lars Løkke Rasmussen or Helle Thorning-Schmidt) will need the flexibility of a Poul Schlüter to survive. The next Folketing will be interesting.