Unless my internet connection goes down and Twitter gets hit by the infamous Fail Whale, I’ll be tweeting as jacobchr. If you want more, the more-or-less-official hashtag seems to be #val2010. Henrik Oscarsson has promised to be there as well.
And at this point, I may as well admit: It looks clear already now that I s**k at predicting. This was my guess back in April and it is obvious that I got the developments in the public opinion completely wrong. The election looks set to be much tighter than expected and turn-out to be higher than I predicted.
Maybe the Social Democrats picked the wrong leader, or forgot to reconsider their policies and strategies in the process? Or maybe they forgot that Sweden these days isn’t the country it used to be? Or perhaps the prospect of Lars Ohly entering government spooked middle-class voters with the collapse of support for the Social Democrats as the result?
Among the Danish commentariat the Sweden Democrats have been the cause célèbre during this campaign – “why can’t a Swede be like us”, the refrain goes. Well, maybe the Swedes are more like us than many would like to believe, but on the other hand the priorities among voters and the political elite may be different in Sweden compared to Denmark.
If you want a cheap guide to the 2006 election, look no further than here. Statsvetenskaplig Tidsskrift’s special edition on the state of the parties is also available for free. And I have written an overview of the state of the (centre-)right.
Even if the Sweden Democrats are a sideshow to the main event, you might want to check out Niklas Orrenius “Jag är inte rabiat, jag äter pizza” (“I’m not an extremist, I eat pizzas”) about SweDem activists and the media’s problems with coming to terms with the party and Markus Uvell’s discussion of the sentiments and dynamics behind the support for sd in “Folkhemspopulismen” are both worth a read.
Enjoy your election night.