Peter Santesson asked in a tweet if Henrik Oscarsson wasn’t being too cautious in his conclusions about the state of the election campaign (and consequently, that my reference to HO was also over-cautious).
As I’m not an electoral researcher or statistician, I’ll leave the technical details to Oscarsson and just summarise how I interpret the numbers:
- There are variations between individual polls and we should be extremely careful when reporting or interpreting on the basis of single polls. Especially when a poll shows a major development compared with other polls and earlier polls from the same pollster.
- I put Mona Sahlin’s chances of becoming prime minister after the election to = 0%. The collapse of support for the Social Democrats is something which will merit the attention of an army of pollsters and political scientists.
- It is not likely that the Centre Party or the Christian Democrats will fall below the 4%-threshold. (See comrade Four Percent).
- Support for the Sweden Democrats appear to the on the increase. Even if there are statistical uncertainties, I now think it is more likely than not that SD makes it past the threshold
- The big question to me is: Will the alliance win a majority of its own, despite SD entering the Riksdag, or will Sweden have a hung parliament. Here, it looks to me that everybody have something to play for.