So, I hear you asking, what are the chances of DF defector Christian H. Hansen’s new party Fokus making it to the Folketing at the next election?
Generally, single defectors have found it hard to win re-election – the last one I can think of is Erhard Jakobsen who, rather surprisingly, managed to win 7,8 % of the vote in the 1973 election. And then there was Aksel Larsen, the ousted leader of DKP who formed SF and made history in 1960. But scores of single defectors have disappeared from the political scene during the ages.
Being more than one helps, though:
- 2007 – Liberal Alliance: Three MPs and two MEPs. (Besides Naser Khader, two Liberal MPs joined the party).
- 1998 – Dansk Folkeparti: Four MPs.
- 1968 – VS: … euh … six MPs, down to four in the election.
- 1966 – Liberalt Centrum: Two MPs.
- 1935 – Bondepartiet: Three MPs.
Sceptical readers would also note that LC soon vanished into thin air, VS was on the verge of a complete break-up but went on to relative glory in the late 1970s and early 1980s before disbanding in the late 1980s and becoming part of the Red-Green Alliance.
Anyway: I would say that a betting-shop should be offering some high odds on F making it to the next Folketing.