So, will Lars Løkke Rasmussen reshuffle his government? Probably.
When will he do the reshuffle? I have no idea.
How big will the reshuffle be? As said, I have no idea.
Reshuffles are a funny business. It it something which makes the commentariat go completely bonkers, but with the exception of the exchange of extremely unlucky or incompetent ministers, long-term effects are hard to see. As every first-year PolSci student will (or at least ought) to know, Poul Schlüter and Poul Nyrup Rasmussen made too many reshuffles to count and it didn’t really help.
The one interesting question is: What will Lene Espersen do? Like her predecessor she has been bogged down with a demanding double portfolio where Trade and Industry takes a heavy toll on her hours. It looks like she has two alternatives, both of which are problematic:
1. Relieve herself of the Trade and Industry portfolio and keep Economic Coordination. Positive effects: She does not have to spend endless hours dealing with the fall-out of the financial crisis. Negative effects: It will look like a step down in ambition.
2. Take Foreign Affairs. Positive effects: The portfolio can be very visible. Negative effects: Heavy travel schedule, European policy not included, high potential for conflicts with the Prime Minister’s Office over the general control of foreign policy.
All things considered, I would probably go for alternative #1 if somebody asked me. The 2010s are not the 1980s.