Jacob Christensen

1. Now that Lars Løkke Rasmussen has held three programme speeches, there should be little doubt about what we will be getting from him. Do not expect flaming liberal rhetoric or Big Plans. This does not mean, however, that there is no ideology or big (or at least biggish) plan.

2. There is a curious contrast between Anders Fogh and Lars Løkke. If the recently published biographies are to be believed, Fogh was generally a pragmatist who posed as an ideologist, while Løkke is ideologically driven but presents himself as a pragmatist.

My guess is that Fogh deliberately used a polarising rhetoric in order to separate two groups of opposition (and potential opposition) voters – the 10-15%, who would never ever consider voting for the Liberals, and the rest, who would. Alienating 10-15% of the electorate is not a problem, even if they are very vocal in media, if you win 10-15% among the rest. And the Liberals and the Danish People’s Party did win those 10-15% in 2001, 2005 and 2007.

3. Politically, Løkke is in a different position than Fogh. First, while Fogh was generally cruising on an economic upturn (except 2003) and the property boom made a lot of people feel richer, Løkke will be fighting an uphill battle. No matter how we twist and turn it, we are in an economic downturn and signs are that some of the underlying basics of Danish economy (productivity, level of education) are not as good as many would have liked to believe.

4. This means that Løkke’s political task will be to raise crisis awareness among voters – including those who may be tempted to vote for the Social Democrats or the Socialists at the next election. But this is much, much easier to do if you are not in government, cf. Poul Schlüter in 1982 (in 1984 he could still rely on the spectre of Anker Jørgensen) and Poul Nyrup Rasmussen in 1993. Ironically, the crisis consciousness may be at its highest among Conservatives and Social Liberals.

5. I, too, noted that Løkke did not mention the EU with one single world. Only that “Denmark and Europe” are challenged by the emerging Asian and Latin American economies. No Lisbon Strategy II here. And a referendum on one or more of the Danish opt-outs before 2011 looks increasingly unlikely.

While we’re at it: Here is the speech wordled

And just to repeat myself: My notes about Løkke Rasmussen’s speech at the opening at the parliamentary year.

Links:
The speech (in Danish)
The blogotariat: Peter Mogensen, Niels Krause-Kjær, Jarl Cordua.

Two Years of Lars Løkke...
Populism Notes...
Have: Policies. Want: Politicians...

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.