Jacob Christensen

Assuming that the next government will be a coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, we have an interesting situation because FDP is now much larger relative to the Union parties than between 1982 and 1998.

The situation is this:
CDU: 27,4% of the vote = 57% of votes for the coalition
CSU: 6,5% of the vote (living dangerously, are we?) = 13% of votes for the coalition
FDP: 14,5% of the vote = 30% of votes for the coalition

With 16 portfolios, this gives something like:
CDU: 9 or more likely 8 portfolios, allowing for the position of chancellor
CSU: 3
FDP: 5

Now if we look at the present portfolios we have (with my guesses included):

Chancellor – CDU
Minister of chancery – CDU
Foreign – FDP
Finance – CSU (question: Will the CSU like to lose Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg on Finance?)
Trade and Industry – FDP
Internal – CDU
Justice – FDP (alternatively: Internal: FDP, Justice: CDU)
Labour and Social Affairs – CDU
Consumer and Agriculture – CSU
Defence – CDU
Families, etc – CDU
Health – CSU (The reform of the sickness insurance is a bone of contention between the Union and FDP)
Transport and infrastructure – FDP
Environment – CDU
Education and research – FDP
Development – CDU

I don’t have Ian Budge and Hans Keman’s book on Parties and Democracy at hand, but I have used their arguments from memory. It will be fun to see how wrong or right I am.

Update: FAZ and Süddeutsche Zeitung speculate (in German).

The Christian Democrats and Their Chances at the 2011 Election...
Eduskunta Update...
Two Numbers for My Swedish Readers...
On the Day of Voting...
Chairs...

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.