One More Very Short Note on the German Election (Guessing Portfolios)
Assuming that the next government will be a coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, we have an interesting situation because FDP is now much larger relative to the Union parties than between 1982 and 1998.
The situation is this:
CDU: 27,4% of the vote = 57% of votes for the coalition
CSU: 6,5% of the vote (living dangerously, are we?) = 13% of votes for the coalition
FDP: 14,5% of the vote = 30% of votes for the coalition
With 16 portfolios, this gives something like:
CDU: 9 or more likely 8 portfolios, allowing for the position of chancellor
CSU: 3
FDP: 5
Now if we look at the present portfolios we have (with my guesses included):
Chancellor – CDU
Minister of chancery – CDU
Foreign – FDP
Finance – CSU (question: Will the CSU like to lose Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg on Finance?)
Trade and Industry – FDP
Internal – CDU
Justice – FDP (alternatively: Internal: FDP, Justice: CDU)
Labour and Social Affairs – CDU
Consumer and Agriculture – CSU
Defence – CDU
Families, etc – CDU
Health – CSU (The reform of the sickness insurance is a bone of contention between the Union and FDP)
Transport and infrastructure – FDP
Environment – CDU
Education and research – FDP
Development – CDU
I don’t have Ian Budge and Hans Keman’s book on Parties and Democracy at hand, but I have used their arguments from memory. It will be fun to see how wrong or right I am.
Update: FAZ and Süddeutsche Zeitung speculate (in German).
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