Jacob Christensen

Assuming that the next government will be a coalition of CDU/CSU and FDP, we have an interesting situation because FDP is now much larger relative to the Union parties than between 1982 and 1998.

The situation is this:
CDU: 27,4% of the vote = 57% of votes for the coalition
CSU: 6,5% of the vote (living dangerously, are we?) = 13% of votes for the coalition
FDP: 14,5% of the vote = 30% of votes for the coalition

With 16 portfolios, this gives something like:
CDU: 9 or more likely 8 portfolios, allowing for the position of chancellor
CSU: 3
FDP: 5

Now if we look at the present portfolios we have (with my guesses included):

Chancellor – CDU
Minister of chancery – CDU
Foreign – FDP
Finance – CSU (question: Will the CSU like to lose Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg on Finance?)
Trade and Industry – FDP
Internal – CDU
Justice – FDP (alternatively: Internal: FDP, Justice: CDU)
Labour and Social Affairs – CDU
Consumer and Agriculture – CSU
Defence – CDU
Families, etc – CDU
Health – CSU (The reform of the sickness insurance is a bone of contention between the Union and FDP)
Transport and infrastructure – FDP
Environment – CDU
Education and research – FDP
Development – CDU

I don’t have Ian Budge and Hans Keman’s book on Parties and Democracy at hand, but I have used their arguments from memory. It will be fun to see how wrong or right I am.

Update: FAZ and Süddeutsche Zeitung speculate (in German).

1. Lowest turn-out since the creation of the Federal Republic in 1949.

2. Worst result for CDU/CSU since 1949.

3. Worst result for SPD in the history of the FRG.

4. Best result for all three minor parties since they were formed. Actually, “minor” may be the wrong description here.

5. Angela Merkel will be the first chancellor since Konrad Adenauer to survive a change in the composition in the federal government (save the representation of DSU for a short period in 1990-1991).

6. According to a snap poll for ARD, SPD’s main problem would be “economic competence”, but how does this square with the collapse of support for the SPD due to the Agenda 2010?

Historical results for the lazy.