Jacob Christensen

Across Europe there is some discussion about voters using the EP election to punish governments. How does this look in Denmark?

One problem is that Denmark used to have distinct national and European party systems so comparisons between elections to the Folketing and the EP are often bound to be misleading but if we look at 2004 (EP), 2005 (National), 2007 (National) and 2009 (EP), it looks like this:

Liberals 19,4 – 29,0 – 25,5 – 19,6
Conservatives: 11,3 – 10,3 – 10,4 – 12,3
Danish People’s: 6,8 – 13,3 – 13,8 – 14,8
Total: 37,5 – 53,6 – 49,7 – 46,7

Generally, the Liberals perform badly in EP elections. The “we’re Eurosceptics, no really”-take didn’t pay off here. What is new, is that the DF now has the same strength in national and EP elections.

Social Democrats: 32,6 – 25,8 – 25,5 – 20,9
Socialists: 8,0 – 6,0 – 13,0 – 15,4
Social Liberals: 6,4 – 9,2 – 5,1 – 4,1
Total: 47,0 – 41,0 – 43,6 – 40,4

The Social Democrats are back to the 1990s. Losing Poul Nyrup was too much of a handicap.

Red-Green Alliance x – 3,4 -2,2 – x
June Movement: 9,1,- x – x- 2,3
People’s Movement: 5,2 – x – x – 7,0
Total: 14,3 – 3,4 – 2,2 – 9,3

Okay, this combination isn’t fair. But you can see that the dedicated anti-EU parties have lost 5 points of the vote. Bandwagon effect for the People’s Movement.

There are some percentage points floating around, but I don’t have the time to do anything decent today.

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