Archive for May 8th, 2009
On the Simple Art of Reporting Opinion Polls
Danish TV2 tells us that we are in for a massive increase in turn-out in the upcoming European Parliament elections – no fewer than 82 per cent of voters declare that they are likely or very likely to vote in the election. When we compare with the turn-out in the 2004 election, this is an increase of 34 percentage points.
Or to put it the other way round: The likelihood that the poll does not reflect the real inclination to vote is pretty big. So the real question is: Why do respondents give the false answer?
Most likely because voting in an election while not obligatory is somehow considered a civic duty and behaviour which is considered to break with general norms is often underreported in polls. To take an example: Support for the Danish People’s Party is always 2-3 points lower in polls than in elections. And even the government is beginning to feel the heat and fear that turn-out may be too low to secure the passing of the revised Succession Act.
Still, even if the royal tinge to the campaign (we had a lovely new little prince a couple of days ago and Danish media were all over the place) may increase turn-out, I wouldn’t expect more than a 4-5 percentage point rise. And I would like to see exactly what question respondents were asked and in what connection.
We Will “Find” You and “Take” You Out
The “Blog” of “Unnecessary” Quotation Marks.
And while we’re at it: No, as a rule Danish does not have an apostrophe in the possessive. It is only when the noun ends on -s, -z or -x or if it is an acronym that you add an ‘. For ze love of god.
Imaginations
Peter Santesson Wilson has a peculiar imagination. I mean the Las Vegas in Las Vegas in Las Vegas (etc) experience (multiple Elvises included)? I wonder how Legoland™ is going to top this. (Too bad I won’t have time to say hello in STHLM next week)
Stine (without surname) finds that Helge Sander has done unspeakable things to the Danish language. As well as the Inglisj. If you know any Scandinavian, remember to add her webtoon to your rss-reader.
If somebody had dreamt up Bristol Palin as abstinence spokesperson … well, reality trumps imagination. (Scroll down for the punchline). HT: Laura McKenna.
Have you ever heard of ethnic self-cleansing? The Russians are the real experts here. And Iran is the new Europe.