Archive for November 3rd, 2008
Will tomorrow’s US presidential election be closer than expected because Barack Obama is African-American? This column looks at the last decade of US electoral contests with black candidates and says that there is a Bradley effect, in which African-American candidates garner lower vote shares than predicted by opinion polls. If that holds true, it will be close tomorrow.
Som led i statsgældspolitikken justeres reglementet for Den Sociale Pensionsfond (DSP) med henblik på at udvide muligheden for placeringer i bl.a. realkreditobligationer.
Lane Kenworthy reminds us of the predictions of Douglas Hibbs’ “Bread and Peace” model – “a Republican two-party vote share in 2008 of about 46.25%”. Also with a link to Brendan Nyhan reviewing past campaigns.
The proof, as they say, will be in the pudding – i.e. possible deviations from the forecast when the results are in on Wednesday.
Anyway – should we see the campaigns, the fund-rising etc, etc, as causes or effects of candidates’ performance in light of the economic and foreign policy fundamentals? Focusing on campaign managers brings a heroic frame to the narrative, focusing on the economy and foreign relations makes for a much more complicated narrative.
Update: Ah, yes – forgot about David Strömberg’s calculations of the possible Bradley effect (also delicioused).
Update update: Andra Gillespie on Routledge’s election blog also discusses the Bradley effect.
I haven’t got the time to do anything serious about this right now, but let me just note that nobody – nobody – can rival the Germans when it comes to messing up coalition agreements. And surely, the SPD must be the most self-destructive party in Europe today.