Jacob Christensen

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Archive for November 3rd, 2008

links for 2008-11-03

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Written by Jacob Christensen

November 3rd, 2008 at 6:31 pm

Posted in delicious.com

Never Mind the Spin

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Lane Kenworthy reminds us of the predictions of Douglas Hibbs’ “Bread and Peace” model – “a Republican two-party vote share in 2008 of about 46.25%”. Also with a link to Brendan Nyhan reviewing past campaigns.

The proof, as they say, will be in the pudding – i.e. possible deviations from the forecast when the results are in on Wednesday.

Anyway – should we see the campaigns, the fund-rising etc, etc, as causes or effects of candidates’ performance in light of the economic and foreign policy fundamentals? Focusing on campaign managers brings a heroic frame to the narrative, focusing on the economy and foreign relations makes for a much more complicated narrative.

Update: Ah, yes – forgot about David Strömberg’s calculations of the possible Bradley effect (also delicioused).

Update update: Andra Gillespie on Routledge’s election blog also discusses the Bradley effect.

Written by Jacob Christensen

November 3rd, 2008 at 6:11 pm

Aktenzeichen XYpsilanti – Ungelöst

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I haven’t got the time to do anything serious about this right now, but let me just note that nobody – nobody – can rival the Germans when it comes to messing up coalition agreements. And surely, the SPD must be the most self-destructive party in Europe today.

Written by Jacob Christensen

November 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 pm

Posted in Politics

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