Archive for October, 2008
links for 2008-10-27
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If London is a frenetic multicultural crossroads in which the English themselves are thoroughly dissipated, Stockholm feels more like a village square where practically everyone is a Swede.
links for 2008-10-26
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Growing Unequal? brings together a range of analyses on the distribution of economic resources in OECD countries. The evidence on income distribution and poverty covers, for the first time, all 30 OECD countries in the mid-2000s, while information on trends extending back to the mid-1980s is provided for around two-thirds of the countries.
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You’ve got friends; just don’t expect to meet them.
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I will focus here on a few basic elements of political ‘modernity’ which imply the building of a sovereign nation state with representative government. There may be several factors to explain the relatively low levels of political ‘modernity’ in most countries in Latin America, including Mexico.
links for 2008-10-25
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High borrowing and the credit crisis are bad enough for hedge funds. Panicky clients are worse
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China Brief from the Jamestown FoundationGlobal Crisis Presents Challenges and Opportunities for China's Economic Reform
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While there is significant heterogeneity across countries (Persson and Tabellini, 2007), our results suggest that, if anything, the average effect of successful democratic transitions on growth is positive. Our “within” evidence shows that the experience of the past four decades suggests that even moderate political reforms can also bring sizable economic gains. Most importantly, our dynamic analysis suggests that growth is usually volatile and negative during the transition period. Yet after the consolidation of democracy, growth stabilises at a higher rate.
The Ghoulish Personal Economy Update
Out of pure spite, I just did a check on my earlier mentioned savings scheme. As you may recall, I originally placed 75.000 SEK in early 2002 and after peaking at 90.000-something, its value had fallen to 63.000 SEK on 6 October and 57.000 SEK on 10 October. The latest reading was 54.775 SEK – I suspect that Friday’s bloodbath isn’t included in this – to which we should add that the Swedish krona has taken a bit of a hammering because the krona, unlike the Danish krone, isn’t pegged to the Euro.
Anyway, if a serious economist reads this, I have a question: I’m not an economic historian, but I recall reading somewhere – Galbaith’s “The Great Crash”? – that dramatic fluctuations (including big rises in stock indexes) are part of the kind of crisis we are in – this was why I didn’t put too big an interest in the triumphant reports of stock market resurgences in later weeks. Am I right? And: What exactly causes these bust-and-boom-and-bust movements?
Okay, that was two questions.
PS: Just for the record: These are not my only savings. Besides pensions schemes, I have some 100.000s tucked away in other schemes. And I live in a rented apartment.
links for 2008-10-24
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The bursting of the credit bubble suggests that the U.S. and global economies have a growth problem as well as a debt problem. According to the official numbers, economic growth in the U.S. has averaged 2.7% over the past 10 years. But by BusinessWeek's calculation, U.S. consumers have run up about $3 trillion in excess borrowing and spending over the same period—consumption that was not justified by income growth.
links for 2008-10-22
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Hur själviska är svenska väljare? Och hur viktiga är vallöften jämfört med genomförd politik? Dessa frågor är lika centrala i den akademiska forskningen som i massmediernas politiska bevakning. Svaren ges i en ny studie som visar att väljarna fäster stor vikt vid hur politiska reformer påverkar den egna plånboken. Ett annat huvudresultat är att väljarna reagerar direkt på vallöften istället för att vänta och se hur den utlovade politiken genomförs.
Non-Update Update
For the record: Yes, I’m fully aware of the fun going on in the Social Liberal Party, but what really occupies me is how to frame a description of the process leading up to the adoption of a publicly supported unemployment insurance in Denmark in … er … 1907. Wonderful timing, no?
links for 2008-10-21
Denmark IS Doomed
Considering that Danish parents do their best to get their teenage offspring to drink their brains out, this piece of research is, well, sobering.
links for 2008-10-20
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We examine empirically the impacts of labor market policies – in terms of unemployment insurance (UI) and active labor market programs (ALMP) – on the duration and outcome of job search and on the quality of a subsequent job. We find that time invested in job search tends to pay off in the form of higher earnings once a job match is formed. More generous UI raises expected unemployment duration, while improving the quality of the resultant job. Participation in ALMP raises the probability of finding a job and the level of expected earnings, but at the cost of lengthening job search.