Jacob Christensen

According to the Pew Research Center, the differences between voters with traditional landline phones and voters with mobile phones are minimal:

Pollsters are continuing to monitor changes in telephone use by the U.S. public, since most surveys are still conducted using only landline telephones. Growing numbers of Americans are reachable only by cell phone, and an even larger number who have both a landline and a cell phone may be “functionally cell-only” because of their phone use habits. The latest Pew Research Center national survey, conducted June 18-29 with a sample of 2,004 adults including 503 on a cell phone, finds that the overall estimate of voter presidential preference is modestly affected by whether or not the cell phone respondents are included. Barack Obama holds a 48% to 40% lead in the sample that includes cell phones, and a 46% to 41% advantage in the landline sample. Estimates of congressional vote are the same in the landline and combined samples.

and:

The cell-only and cell-mostly respondents in the Pew poll are different demographically from others. Compared with all respondents reached on a landline, both groups are significantly younger, more likely to be male, and less likely to be white. But the cell-only and cell-mostly also are different from one another on many characteristics. Compared with the cell-only, the cell-mostly group is more affluent, better educated, and more likely to be married, to have children, and to own a home.

Finally, a technical note (the thing which interests political scientists):

The more serious challenge to survey research posed by cell phones is the declining absolute numbers of certain types of respondents, most notably the young. In recent Pew Research Center surveys, only about 10% of respondents in landline samples are under age 30, which is roughly half of what it should be according to the U.S. Census. Young voters reached on landlines share many of the characteristics of the cell-only group, especially in terms of political views. That is why statistical weighting of the landline samples helps to correct for the absence of the cell-only. But the shortfall of young respondents in absolute numbers means that pollsters are limited in their ability to analyze differences within this age group.

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert will be resigning. Sort of. Lisa Goldman – who also blogs – lists his possible successors as Kadima leader:

Come September, Kadima will choose a new leader from the following candidates: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni; Minister of Security (and former head of the Shin Bet) Avi Dichter; and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz (former IDF Chief of Staff).

Tzipi Livni is known for her integrity, but lacks experience in coalition building. Avi Dichter lacks experience in foreign affairs and in domestic politics. Shaul Mofaz failed the officer’s examination several times when he was in the IDF; he is known as a man lacking in both humor and compassion – as well as experience. Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, the head of the Likud Party, was widely considered one of the worst prime ministers in Israel’s history when he was voted out of office in 1999. Unfortunately his replacement, Labor party leader Ehud Barak, managed to trump Bibi in the disastrous leadership department.

You’ll need a strong dose of Jewish humour to cope with that one, methinks.

KOT released the numbers for applications and admissions to post-secondary education programmes in Denmark yesterday. If we look at the numbers for political science (Copenhagen, Århus, Odense)/social science (Roskilde)/public administration (Ålborg), the numbers for 2007 and 2008 are as follows:

Note that I have only included first-preference applications.¹ In any event, applications are down some 15-20% in Copenhagen and Århus, 32% in Roskilde, 37% in Odense and a staggering 46% in Ålborg. Copenhagen and Århus have managed to keep up admissions, but unless something happens next year, political science/public administration programmes at the smaller universities could very soon be facing a severe economic crisis.

1. Also, programmes in Roskilde are organised differently – public administration is not as big as you might be led to believe by these numbers [↩]