The former Danish Finance Minister Mogens Lykketoft once famously called stockmarket traders hysteriske kællinger – the Danish equivalient of hysterical b%&€#!s – but Slate columnist Daniel Gross now suggest that they are in fact behaving like unruly toddlers while investment bankers are ADHD-struck tweens.
No, it’s not an endorsement from my side (when I took an electoral compass test, I came out as an Obamaite), but Mark Thoma points us to Lane Kenworthy who applies Douglas Hibbs’ “bread-and-peace” model on the 2008 election and suggests that whoever wins the Republican nomination has more than a fair chance to go on to win the Presidential election.
Kenworthy has some caveats – and I would also consider what effects the unpopularity of the present administration might have on the Republican side. But then, we’re talking about the US, not Europe, and electoral politics works in a slightly different way across the pond.
2000 should have taught us that lesson.
I haven’t got anything sensible or terribly original to say about this Tuesday’s primary extravaganza but Charles H. Franklin discusses opinion polls for both parties in his blog Political Aritmetik (which I think is very much worth bookmarking or adding to your rss-reader). Matthew Shugart points out polls that show Barack Obama catching up on Hillary Clinton.
You know, I subscribe to Slate’s “Political Gabfest” podcast which is published every Friday. They started talking about the 2008 presidential elections more than a year ago.
Update: democraticSPACE has a projected
body delegate count.