Matthew Shugart takes stock after the first rounds of primary elections:
If one goes by the cable news and other media, one “knows” that John McCain is the front runner for the Republican presidential nomination. Maybe he is even inevitable. One would also “know” that Mitt Romney is in trouble, and that Mike Huckabee might even be finished.
When one looks at delegates—or even quaint indicators like votes–one gets a different picture.
Social scientists don’t get midaeval on the media, they get empirical ðŸ˜›
And today is the start of the last year of George W. Bush’s term in office.