Jacob Christensen

A colleague asked me to do some calculations on Gallup’s daily index which is published in Berlingske Tidende. This is what the averages look like for a) the entire campaign until now and b) the last five days:

The indication here is that the centre parties (Social Liberals and New Alliance) have lost support during the campaign with the Unity List close to the 2% threshold. Liberals, Conservatives and the DPP would be close to a renewed majority which could explain today’s “spy story”.

To consider: A UL constituency seat in Copenhagen is not out of the possible. Also: Megafon/TV2 have the opposition nudging ever closer to a relative majority.

Just some fast updates and thoughts about the “spy story”:

• We should remember that Claus Hjort Frederiksen and Jens Rohde are the Danish equivalent of the Slime Machine (I’m still grateful to Brad deLong for coining that term). Jarl Cordua – who has more than one axe to grind with Messrs CHF and JR – has more. Also: Kristian Madsen from the red corner.
• Anders Fogh Rasmussen didn’t know what Claus Hjort was up to? Gimme a break: CHF has been AFR’s hatchet man since 1998.
• During Mogens Lykketoft’s term as SD chairman, Henrik Sass Larsen was sidelined. It could give him the motive to undermine the party leadership – but it would also mean that his informations wouldn’t be of the first order.
• “Ekstra Bladet’s story is Bent Falbert’s story” – meaning that a lot of EB reporters wouldn’t touch it. And the same applies to a lot of other media.
• Mikkel Favrholt has a career to consider. I would be careful when judging his statements.

What was the point of the story? Obviously Hjort Frederiksen (again) appears as the Liberal’s hatchet man assisted by a number of Liberal spokesmen. The real target isn’t Sass Larsen but Helle Thorning-Schmidt.

I mean – “would you elect an inexperienced politician who cannot gauge her closest advisors as prime minister?”

Remember that polls show that the undecided are more left- than right-leaning. The closer the race, the more poisonous the campaign.

I meant to do a summary of the developments related to local taxes as an issue in the campaign, when this happend:

1. Ekstra Bladet claims that the political spokesman of the Social Democrats acted as an undercover agent (!) for the Liberals during the 2007 campaign. The main source is Jens Rohde, the then political spokesman for the Liberals and present manager of TV2 Radio
2. The former Liberal press secretary Mikkel Faurholdt denies any irregular contacts with the Social Democrats.
3. The Social Democrats deny the story (Also: Interview with Sass Larsen in Politiken). Former Social Democratic chairman blasts the story as a pathetic lie by Jens Rohde.
4. TV 2 suspends Jens Rohde from his job.
5. The Liberal education spokesman declares that “everybody knew about this”.

Meanwhile, today’s Gallup gives the government a majority with the Danish People’s Party for the second day running. Megafon/TV2, on the other hand, sees the opposition close to a majority.

• Andrew Gelman – Have your students work in pairs: some thoughts and self-criticism
  (tags: teaching academic education presentation)
• Greenhouse gases: Demand control policies, supply and the time path of carbon prices | vox – Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists
  Policies aimed at lowering carbon demand without concern for the price path of carbon may backfire.
  (tags: economics environment publicpolicy sustainability)
• Helpful tax competition: new empirical evidence | vox – Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists
  Opponents of international tax harmonisation argue that tax competition can rein in the tax-raising powers of big-government �Leviathans� and thereby act as a force for good. An analysis of taxation across Swiss municipalities lends support to that ar
  (tags: publicpolicy finance taxation research academic)
• Political Science Weblog: Jones and Olken on the political consequences of assassination
  We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts.
  (tags: politicalscience politics research conflict)
• Political Science Weblog: Iqbal and Zorn on the Consequences of Assassination
  Our findings support the existence of an interactive relationship among assassination, leadership succession, and political turmoil: in particular, we find that assassinations� effects on political instability are greatest in systems in which the proces
  (tags: politicalscience politics conflict research)
• Political Science Weblog: Edlin, Gelman and Kaplan on why it’s rational to vote in large elections
  For voters with �social� preferences, the expected utility of voting is approximately independent of the size of the electorate, suggesting that rational voter turnouts can be substantial even in large elections.
  (tags: politicalscience politics elections research)
• Faking It – How to Talk About Books You Haven’t Read
  I seriously doubt that pretending to have read this book will boost your creativity. On the other hand, reading it may remind you why you love reading.
  (tags: literature reviews humour france)
• Peter Gabriel’s Lyrics
  (tags: music reference)
• KMD: Folketingsvalget den 13. november 2007
  (tags: denmark elections)
• McKinsey & Company – Synthesis – Accounting for the Cost of Health Care in the United States – January 2007
  MGI found that the overriding cause of high U.S. health care costs is the failure of the intermediation system � payors, employers, and government � to provide sufficient incentives to patients and consumers to be value�conscious in their demand dec
  (tags: economics healthcare publicpolicy publichealth usa)
• NEJM — Addressing Rising Health Care Costs — A View from the Congressional Budget Office
  (tags: publicpolicy publichealth usa)