A colleague asked me to do some calculations on Gallup’s daily index which is published in Berlingske Tidende. This is what the averages look like for a) the entire campaign until now and b) the last five days:
|Party||Avg 25/10-10/10||Avg 6/11-10/11|
|Danish People's Party||12,6||12,3|
The indication here is that the centre parties (Social Liberals and New Alliance) have lost support during the campaign with the Unity List close to the 2% threshold. Liberals, Conservatives and the DPP would be close to a renewed majority which could explain today’s “spy story”.
To consider: A UL constituency seat in Copenhagen is not out of the possible. Also: Megafon/TV2 have the opposition nudging ever closer to a relative majority.