In today’s news:
Expert #1: Naser Khader’s New Alliance will be a big success at the next elections.
Expert #2: Naser Khader’s New Alliance will fail at the next elections.
Topic for discussion: How do you become an “expert” according to the media?
In this case “expert #1” is the political editor of DR News, Ask Rostrup (quoted by DR News), while “expert #2” is Søren Risbjerg Thomsen, Professor in Political Science at Århus University and specialising in electoral studies.
My gut feeling (as a non-expert in electoral studies) is that Khader & Co. are facing an uphill battle in the medium term. The New Alliance will be positioning itself somewhere between the Social Democrats (!) and the Conservative Party. The link with the Social Liberal and Socialist electorate is more strained.
And: Even though a snap Gallup poll says that 26 per cent of voters “might” vote for Khader’s party – against the Social Democrats’ 25,6 per cent share of the vote at the 2005 elections – Khader will be well advised to consider Gudrun Schyman’s fate in Sweden.