Bad News for the Swedish Government
The new Swedish government hasn’t had the best start in the electoral arena. The four centre-right parties won by the narrowest of majorities, but support for the three smaller parties started slipping soon after the government took office.
Two opinion polls published on Sunday confirm this picture: The opposition has a clear lead over the coalition, the Liberals and the Centre Party have lost support while the Social Democrats have gained support. It is the worst start to a government since Olof Palme managed to hold on to power after the 1973 election.
Unfortunately, the published data do not give us any information about which voters have changed parties and why. The explanations given by electoral researchers ususally point to three factors:
- Policy: The government has failed to bring across the arguments for its very sudden and dramatic changes to the unemployment insurance system.
- Valence: Two ministers were forced to resign soon after the government took office due to their personal economy and the press and the opposition parties have questioned the economic engagements in the Russian oil industry of the Foreign Minister Carl Bildt.
- Vacuum: Following the resignation of Göran Persson, the Social Democrats have been without an effective leadership. This has made it possible for dissatisfied voters to project their wishes onto the policy vacuum left by the resigning leader.
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