Archive for January 2007


Return of the Living Dead

January 31st, 2007 — 11:25pm

Karen Jespersen to announce that she will be a candidate for the Liberal Party after leaving the Social Democrats? If so, that should be a first in Danish politics. I can’t recall that a prominent Social Democrat has ever made such a swich on the national level.

Lars Danielsson is back in the Swedish media after back-up tapes allegedly reveals that he wasn’t at work on Boxing Day 2004. The Disaster Commission has been resummoned.

Oh, and in case you ever wondered why Homer Simpson is yellow and wears blue pants: He exists in the real world and works at the nucear power plant in Forsmark.

Damn, I was right: I had used the title once before. Will Jespersen suffer the same fate as Landis?

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New Regional Divisions for Sweden – Maybe

January 28th, 2007 — 1:39am

An important part of the conclusions of the Committee on Public Sector Responsibilities (!) was revealed on Friday – sorry for the delay – when it was announced that the committee would recommend the merger of the State County Administrative Boards with the County Councils and a reduction of the number of regional units from 21 to 6-9.

The final conclusions will not be published until the end of February but the implication is that Sweden unlike Denmark (and to a certain degree Norway) will keep a strong regional level of administration and perhaps even strengthen the role of the regions.

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Mona Sahlin: Curb Your Enthusiasm (Part 2)

January 27th, 2007 — 7:51pm

The Swedish Social Democrats announce their new chairman and the result is – silence.

When you consider that the chairman of the Social Democratic Party ought to be a very important actor in Swedish politics and that Mona Sahlin has always been controversial, the near absence of public debate is a little surprising.

On the other hand, the search for a new Social Democratic chairman has been a drawn-out process starting with Göran Persson’s announcement of his resignation in September and it has been obvious for some time that Sahlin would be the only realistic female candidate for the post so a certain fatigue on the side of the media would be understandable.

But what makes Sahlin so controversial among Social Democrats and – to answer a question from a comment to the earlier post – could a “Mona Sahlin” make it to the top of, say, the Danish Social Democratic Party?

With regard to the first question, the Social Democrats have already answered it themselves – there is not one, but two (or four, depending on how you count) reasons for the controversies.

Anyone for Chocolate?

The first line of criticism attacks Sahlin for being shallow politically and careless in personal matters – this is what political scientists would call a valence perspective (For examples – columnist Britta Svensson in Expressen; old-timer Enn Kokk’s savaging of Sahlin is also a fascinating read).

Here, we should note that the 1995 scandal was about a bit more than a Toblerone™ chocolate bar even if the amount of money involved in Sahlin’s dealings with the Chancery’s official credit card hardly would make anyone raise an eyebrow in Germany or France.

There Is No Hate Like Old Hate

The second line attacks Sahlin for taking an anti-trade union stance – this is partly a position issue, but given that Swedish trade unions tend to see the party as an organ charged with the execution of trade union policies in the legislative sphere, this is a pretty lethal kind of criticism. (For a defence of Sahlin against this line of attack, see Christer Isaksson in Expressen or Kjell-Olof Feldt in DN).

Just to prove how strained the relations between Sahlin and the trade union movement are, it was made public that she hadn’t been a member of a union between 1995 and 2006 and the obvious question is who decided to leak this information, not that it would hurt Sahlin’s credibility as a member of the Social Democratic family.

The accusations against Sahlin reached such heights that the former PM Ingvar Carlsson declared that Sahlin as Labour Market Minister from 1990 to 1991 (yes, we are talking about things that happened more than fifteen years ago!) was responsible for implementing government policies and that any criticism should be directed at him as the then leader of the government.

Carlsson made two indirect points here: As government minister, Sahlin was loyal and reliable – in this way he also defended her against accusations of lack of personal reliability – and the leader of the Social Democratic Party has other priorities than fulfilling the demands of the trade unions.

Maybe the true significance of Sahlin’s election as party leader would be to signify the end of trade union dominance in many areas of Swedish politics, even under a new Social Democratic government.

In 1995, trade unions could block her election. In 2007, they may have lost much of their former strength in the political arena. The party congress is still a little over a month away, so stuff can still happen.

A Danish Sahlin?

How about the Danish parallels, then?

I think that the best Danish match to Mona Sahlin would be Ritt Bjerregaard, who just like Sahlin has always been surrounded by controversies, but always managed to bounce back.

During her long political career, Bjerregaard was no stranger to scandals: The 1978 Hotel Ritz affair (as Education Minister, she committed the crime of staying at the Hotel Ritz in Paris when she was attending a UNESCO conference), the 1992 housing affair (she had a six-room apartment in Central Copenhagen but was registered in Odense, thus claiming extra expenses as an MP) and the non-publication of “The Commissioner’s Diary” in 1996 (a “diary” where Bjerregaard made a number of less-than-favourable comments about active politicians) stand out as the high, or low, points.

On the other hand, Bjerregaard also established herself as a profiled politician. As Education Minister during much of the 1970s, she became the symbol of the abolition of traditional demands in teaching in favour of a new, “leftist” line of education. As Social Minister, on the other hand, she was responsible for introducing austerity measures following the second oil crisis in 1979. Finally, as European Commissioner for the Environment and Minister of Food, she symbolised the new, Green approach to production and trade.

How effective she actually was as an administrator has been debated and unlike Sahlin, Bjerregaard was never able to be a contender for the highest offices in her party or in general until she was in her mid-60s when she led a successful campaign for the office of Mayor of Copenhagen.

If we assume that Sahlin is elected leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party in March, why did she succeed where Bjerregaard failed?

Time may be one explanation: Bjerregaard came out of the 1970s where female politicians were still very much an exception to the rule. In the 1990s and especially the 2000s, things have changed. Not choosing a woman as chairman would have been an embarrassment to the Swedish Social Democrats.

Style and perception is another dimension we should consider. Especially when she was younger, Bjerregaard suffered under a reputation for being cold and aloof, almost robot-like in her relations with other people – her experiences as a girl with working-class background in the educational system could have played a role here. Sahlin, on the other hand, is described as charming, if un-coordinated.

Finally, Bjerregaard faced stiff competition in the form of, first, Svend Auken and later Poul Nyrup Rasmussen. Auken was the old party chairman Anker Jørgensen’s favourite during the 1980s, Nyrup Rasmussen was supported by the trade unions during the 1990s.

Note: The Mayor of Copenhagen isn’t elected directly. Ritt Bjerregaard led the Social Democratic ticket in the elections for the local council but the campaign in 2005 was generally seen as a two-way affair between her and the Liberal Søren Pind with Social Liberal Klaus Bondam as an outsider.

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A Message from the Editor

January 25th, 2007 — 10:58pm

There was a minor issue with the Veryplaintext theme after I updated WordPress to version 2.1: My links disappeared for some reason. So for the moment, I’m using the k2 theme. The header is a crop of a photo I took of Gladsaxe Town Hall.

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Moose

January 25th, 2007 — 10:15pm

Completely off-topic but in case any of the readers have ever wondered:

How long can you live in Sweden without seeing a wild moose?

the answer in my case is:

A little under eight years

It happened like this: On the way back from Örnsköldsvik to Umeå yesterday, my bus suddenly slowed down and stopped. This, in itself, was nothing noteworthy but I couldn’t help noticing that all of the other passengers were looking out of the windows and there they were: A moose cow with two calves calmly crossing the road.

When you see an adult moose in this situation, you realise why Swedish cars are so solidly built. These animals are big and very impressive.

I have yet to see a reindeer but I understand that they are considered less dangerous.

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Sweden: New Electoral Barometer

January 22nd, 2007 — 1:32am

Temo – which is now Synovate Temo – keeps its new electoral barometer here.

Older data are here.

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Bad News for the Swedish Government

January 21st, 2007 — 2:40pm

The new Swedish government hasn’t had the best start in the electoral arena. The four centre-right parties won by the narrowest of majorities, but support for the three smaller parties started slipping soon after the government took office.

Two opinion polls published on Sunday confirm this picture: The opposition has a clear lead over the coalition, the Liberals and the Centre Party have lost support while the Social Democrats have gained support. It is the worst start to a government since Olof Palme managed to hold on to power after the 1973 election.

Unfortunately, the published data do not give us any information about which voters have changed parties and why. The explanations given by electoral researchers ususally point to three factors:

  1. Policy: The government has failed to bring across the arguments for its very sudden and dramatic changes to the unemployment insurance system.
  2. Valence: Two ministers were forced to resign soon after the government took office due to their personal economy and the press and the opposition parties have questioned the economic engagements in the Russian oil industry of the Foreign Minister Carl Bildt.
  3. Vacuum: Following the resignation of Göran Persson, the Social Democrats have been without an effective leadership. This has made it possible for dissatisfied voters to project their wishes onto the policy vacuum left by the resigning leader.

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Mona Sahlin: Curb Your Enthusiasm (Part 1)

January 20th, 2007 — 4:27pm

It was an open and shut deal: The party chairman had announced his resignation and made a clear hint about who he wanted as his successor. Alternative candidates backed down citing for instance their family life as a cause for not wanting the top post. A little strange as the Swedish model should make having a career and a family life compatible, but that was the argument in any event.

This left only one Candidate and a good one: A person who was on the one hand experienced but not bogged down in the nasty conflicts surrounding the party. Someone who represented a new generation. Where the ceding party leader been known as a bit of a bore, the Candidate was charismatic. A true communicator in the age of new media.

Oh – and the Candidate was a woman. A first in a party which had more than a touch of working class traditionalism in it and whose leading circles had always preferred strong, quiet men.

And then – to borrow Donald Rumsfeld’s expression – stuff happened. Someone leaked a story revealing personal details about the Candidate that turned out to be a feast for the tabloid press. The Candidate was forced to back down and a Surprise Replacement appeared out of left field.

The strange thing about the Swedish Social Democrats’ search for a new chairman following the 2006 election and Göran Persson’s resignation is that is was almost a repeat of the search following Ingvar Carlsson’s announcement in late 1995 that he would step down as prime minister and chairman of the Social Democrats. Even the Candidate is the same person: Mona Sahlin.

Some would argue that had it not been for a mentally ill Serbian equipped with a knife, Anna Lindh would have taken over from Persson sometime during 2004 or 2005 and led the Social Democrats in the election campaign while Sahlin would have been condemned to the status of a has-been.

And who knows: Maybe a rejuvenated Social Democratic Party under Lindh would have managed to scrape together the few thousand votes which separated left and right in September 2006.

Or maybe the story about the extradited Egyptians would have tainted Lindh’s reputation. We shall never know.

Update: I originally – and inexplicably – wrote that Ingvar Carlsson annouced his resignation in 2005. The correct year is 1995. Are you ready to party like it’s 2009?

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Trachtenfest

January 19th, 2007 — 5:22pm

Unfortunately, I never got around to do a post about the demise of Eduard Stoiber – in my opinion one of the best demolition jobs in recent European politics. But you shouldn’t miss this incredible photo published by Frankfurter Allgemeine.

Also: Stoiber and Strauss.

Bavaria is different.

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We Have a Leader

January 18th, 2007 — 11:48am

After many twists and turns, the smoke signals finally appeared from the HQ of the Swedish Social Democrats today: Mona Sahlin accepts the nomination as the new leader of the party and successor of Göran Persson.

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