Archive for March 8th, 2006
And the Loser Is…
The Swedish Political Science Association announced a competition among political scientists who were asked to guess the results of the national elections in September.
I thought that I might as well make a complete fool of myself, so here – without further ado – is my completely uninformed guess:
- Vänsterpartiet – 4,5% (-3,8)
- Miljöpartiet – 5,5% (+1)
- SAP – 37,5% (-2,3)
- Centerpartiet – 5,5% (-0,6)
- Folkpartiet – 11,0% (-2,3)
- Moderaterna – 27,5% (+12,3)
- Kristdemokraterna – 5,5% (-3,6)
- Junilistan – 1,0% (+1)
- Feministiskt initiativ – 1,0% (+1)
- Sjukvårdspartiet – 0,5% (+0,3 (Norrbottenspartiet))
- Others – 0,5% (-2,3)
My guess for the turn-out is 77,5% (-2,3).
It appears that I predict a victory for the centre-right (49,5% of the vote against 47,5% for the left wing). Well, we shall see in six months’ time.
If you want to follow the Swedish opinion polls, then TEMO’s opinion poll barometer is the page to watch.